All Dragons Must Fly

It’s definitelythe difference between “on paper” and “in practice.” Onpaper, Jon Arryn did exactly what a foster father in that context issupposed to do: brought Robert up in a way that developed thosenatural gifts which are so valued by society, protected Robert indefiance of the Mad King, and eventually put Robert on the throne.Political advantage is the point of that relationship.

And yet. You’reright, he did also enable all of Robert’s bad behavior. And,frankly, he enabled a lot of people’s bad behavior. He heldeverything together superficially, but he permitted the rot thatensured things would fall apart as spectacularly as they did. He letRobert become an abusive, criminally irresponsible alcoholic; herewarded Tywin’s treachery and convinced himself the Martells wereokay with it, he kept Jaime and Varys around, he brought Littlefingerto steal everything that wasn’t nailed down, he either didn’tknow or didn’t care that the Greyjoys were rebuilding their navy.Put together, you have someone who’s very gifted with soft powerand interpersonal relationships, but is fatally credulous when badfaith actors pretend to let him keep the peace.

Well, he probably spent a lot of time at court growing up, which is also where Jon Arryn would’ve spent most of his time. And usually those fostering arrangements have some political motivation, which there doesn’t seem to have been here. But, in retrospect, on a human level he probably could have used some guidance.

Given that this is ultimately up to Robert, “better fit” seems like a more proactive decision than seems likely to me. Presumably if Jon Arryn were interested in a royal marriage for his own kid he wouldn’t have had to push too hard for a betrothal between Robin and Myrcella. Or, like, at all. Just pick a day after a particularly massive bender and tell the king how very honored we were to accept your gracious proposal last night, your grace, and - look, a bird! Given that he didn’t, I’m slightly inclined to think that his idea was more along the lines of sending a message to the Lannisters by elevating one of the Tyrells, but of course that’s just a guess.

Doubtful. At that point he’d have to challenge Jon Arryn - who’s now successfully led one rebellion and put down another - for power, and he would lose. There aren’t grounds to remove Cersei from the regency, so an irregular move like that would clearly be a power grab, and Jon Arryn both outranks him formally and has far better relationships with the other great houses than Tywin does. Tywin is especially not in his strongest position right after the Greyjoys have destroyed his navy.

Between Varys and Littlefinger, Arryn’s days are still numbered, and of course a Queen Regent Cersei would appoint him Hand rather than calling on Ned Stark. But that’s a ways down the line, so until then, far safer to lurk around Casterly Rock tormenting helpless children.

Legally, an acquittal is an acquittal. In terms of perception, I imagine people would think of the queen joining the Faith as a theoretical endgame. As a practical matter, though, it doesn’t matter. A trial is only going to happen if it’s already too late.

A case has to be brought by people, right? Someone has to announce the charges, and a lot of other someones have to be witnesses. And if the queen is acquitted, then it logically follows that all of those people told serious lies about the queen. More to the point, they’ve directly challenged her children, including the child who is the crown prince or the ruling king. Nobody in their right minds is going to want a piece of that if the outcome is at all in doubt. Think about how slow and deliberate Jon Arryn’s investigation seems to have been. Hand of the King, the person closest to and most trusted by King Robert, and he was concerned about the repercussions of bringing a case which was objectively true.

More systemically, a real trial - setting out to find the truth, which is an inherent acknowledgement that the truth is not known - is self-refuting in this context. There’s a whole set of social customs in place to make people feel sure about something they don’t actually have a way of knowing. Once you’ve held a trial, then that puts legitimacy in doubt. The evidence offered against the queen, convincing or not, is out there for the king’s enemies to use. This is a move to be made to help support an endpoint that has already been determined.

It’s not impossible, though I doubt it. It’s different for Baelish to get the patronage of his liege lord than it is for him to be given a position from someone in another legion. And that kind of thing isn’t up to Jaime at Casterly Rock as long as Tywin is around, even if he were the type to challenge his father over something so apparently small. Lysa might also have been less dependent on her dreams of Petyr at first, and thus less likely to push for it, if she was looking at a life with someone her own age rather than an old man who was taking her on sufferance. Unfortunately, I think she’s pretty likely to become unhappy and might start feeling that way again eventually, but it’s going to be harder for Petyr to take advantage of it.

If both sides lose their focal symbol, I’m not sure that the rebels necessarily still win. They still have leadership in Jon Arryn and to some extent Ned Stark, which the loyalists didn’t. (Though in fairness, the loyalists got pretty far without leadership, since Rhaegar didn’t show up for the first few months of fighting anyway, so this might not be decisive.) But the Targaryens have a lot of institutional gravity - the capitol, the Targaryen brand, and a clear line of succession. The rebels have….whats-his-name, who nobody outside of the Stormlands knows and nobody inside the Stormlands particularly likes.

And if it still looks like it might be a draw, then Tywin probably doesn’t move on the capitol. So even if the rebels regroup and make it to King’s Landing, then Ned is the man on the spot during the Sack and neither of Rhaegar’s children are killed. Even if Tywin does march east, I really doubt that the Sack would have been as brutal as it was if the new king was an unknown quantity. He’s not going to run the risk of actually being held accountable for his crimes. Regardless of whether Tywin or Ned captures King’s Landing, Jon Arryn is the elder statesman with the upper hand here, not Tywin. So definitely not Tywin as regent. Arryn wants to keep things as legal and consistent as possible, so he’s going to hang onto formal authority himself.

If I were Jon Arryn, I’d probably say that the deaths of Aerys and Rhaegar made the whole thing over and declare baby Aegon king and myself his regent. People didn’t rebel because they hated all Targaryens on principle, but because Aerys and Rhaegar got out of control. If innocent baby Aegon is around to crown, then why throw out three centuries of tradition for a barely-grown teenager I don’t know? Then I’d set up a regency council in order to get a block of houses invested in this decision, with an eye toward developing it into a more long-lasting check on the crown, which was probably the whole idea to begin with.

With Stannis there are complications aside from his demeanor. He is about 19 years old so he’s too old for a regent, but still really young, especially since he really hasn’t been trained for anything like this. And on what grounds? Robert would’ve won by conquest, but in this scenario Robert didn’t win, he’s dead, so the line of succession hasn’t passed to the Baratheons yet. And Stannis isn’t winning by conquest, he’s still under siege. So even if the rebels still take King’s Landing and Jon Arryn is thinking fast enough to backdate the Rebellion (this is a thing) and say Robert was already the king and Stannis was already the heir, which is already questionable, he’d be doing so under really questionable authority: Stannis is old enough that it’s up to him to formally delegate authority, but he hasn’t done so yet. So who’s in charge for however long that the king is under siege by the Tyrells? And all of this is assuming that Mace doesn’t just take Storm’s End when he hears about Robert’s death - but why wouldn’t he? So either he’s killed Renly and Stannis and ended the Baratheons to show his loyalty to the crown, or they’re still alive but in his custody and now the rebels have to let their untrustworthy enemy play kingmaker. Crowning Aegon (or, if he has been killed, Viserys) and consolidating power immediately involves an awful lot less ifs and coulds.

Rhaenys and Robb is probably less likely because of Lyanna’s son, who’s still going to be born. Without Robert to sneer at the deaths of dragonspawn, and especially if Rhaegar’s other children don’t die, the ToJ raid goes down differently and in the end it might not be so pressing to keep Jon a secret. He’s actually an asset, right, if Arryn is building this whole reconciliation narrative - the first thing done in baby Aegon’s name is to legitimize his brother, now they have an heir and a spare and Jon Arryn can mold the next generation as he sees fit. (Prince Brandon the Dragonknight! Prince Aemon the Wolfknight? OH KIDDO YOUR LIFE COULD’VE BEEN SO DIFFERENT.) In that case the Starks’ bond with the royal family probably doesn’t need to be strengthened any further. But if Ned does want to keep the whole thing private, he isn’t going to want to draw attention to any connection between the Starks and the Targaryens. Assuming minimal departures from the original timeline, I think Rhaenys-Willas would be a good choice: the Tyrells were loyal to the crown but distanced from recent excesses, making them a good bridge to build, and rich enough that the regime isn’t so dependent on Tywin.

That’s a good point. Even someone significantly less credulous than Jon Arryn wouldn’t want to see it. The truth would be a stunning blow for something he worked so hard for, and one that comes back pretty harshly on his own judgment, as the person who insisted on the marriage. 

And even if he did acknowledge it to himself, that’s not necessarily a guarantee that he’d do something about it. Coming forward would be a massive blow for a still very new regime, and what would it get him? A catastrophic hit to the regime’s credibility and an irreparable breach with Casterly Rock (because Tywin will never, ever admit it), so that he can replace a perfectly desirable and malleable young man with Stannis, who is widely unpopular and seems unlikely to have any sons of his own, guaranteeing another succession problem down the road. It’s only a problem if it gets out, after all. Maybe he quietly has Cersei poisoned to limit exposure and lets well enough alone.

Not that it matters for long, because he’ll either be shadowbabied for being an obstruction to Stannis or killed by little birds for getting in Aegon’s way, so. Perspective.

“Find out” is different than “prove” here. Rumors that Ned’s story should be put to the smell test would not be great for any of them. The stakes are too high. Honestly, this is one of those things where the cover-up leaves the biggest trail. (“HIS MOTHER IS WYSHARA SISTERTON DON’T ASK ME ANY MORE QUESTIONS NO DEEP DARK SECRETS HERE NO SIREE BOB” is the sketchiest.)

Jon Arryn, maybe; it’s possible that Ned kept it from him because he didn’t want to disappoint or be disappointed by his beloved foster father rather than being rationally concerned about a potential threat. 

Catelyn is a bigger liability. I don’t think it matters if she reacts to Jon as a threat to her social status rather than a threat to Ned’s commitment to her. That was what it was about initially - they didn’t love or even know each other at the beginning of their marriage. The truth isn’t going to make her resent Jon any less, because her attitude toward him is about her own issues,* and so Ned can’t (and shouldn’t, with a child’s life at stake) depend on her always acting rationally about the situation. A person who can’t pretend not to hate a baby is not a person who gets trusted with state secrets. Them’s the breaks.

*I’m a broken record on this point, I know, but it apparently bears repeating that nothing about a child can ~make an adult who has power over them be ~understandably shitty to them.

Well, Ned’s investigation wasn’t initially about succession, it was about Jon Arryn’s death. So if things all shook out the same way before the series picks up, then no. Even if Joffrey were a good kid, his accession would mean that the Lannisters won their coup, and Ned isn’t going to let Arryn’s murder pay off.

So the real question is, does Jon Arryn start his investigation, therefore motivating him to send Robin out of KL which set up the situation where Littlefinger could manipulate Lysa to pull the trigger when she did? That’s a tougher one to answer.

The argument against: As good as he was about hatching his own plots to secure his personal place in the feudal hierarchy, he was spectacularly bad at judging the character and intentions of others. Varys, Littlefinger, Tywin, the Martells, even technically Ned himself - Jon Arryn enabled all kinds of active and passive subversion of the regime. The only threat he managed to counter in the short term was world-class non-genius Balon Greyjoy, and even Balon was allowed to rebuild his navy so that he could pounce at the first opportunity. So there really must’ve been something extraordinary to jar Jon Arryn into acknowledging the twins’ treachery. Without Joffrey’s budding sociopathy to motivate him, he may have slept on this one just like all the others.

The argument for: He’s probably not going to ignore an issue that someone else puts in front of his face, and Stannis certainly has a vested interest in making the Hand see the truth, whatever Joffrey’s character. Though of course, the fact that Stannis stood to gain from the allegation might have made him less credible if Jon couldn’t quite bring himself to face facts.

So…maybe? Certainly the plot changes drastically without the second murder attempt on Bran motivating Catelyn to go down to KL, bite on Littlefinger’s bait about the knife and set him up on play dates with Ned, arrest Tyrion at the inn (though who knows, she may have detained him at Winterfell anyway if Lysa keeps pushing her buttons), &c. And it would have been interesting to see Ned grapple with it if the incest-baby usurper were sweet little Tommen, rather than Aerys III who needs to be stopped anyway.

(I’m less sure about no dead Lady, though. Bringing two growing direwolves to an urban environment was an appalling display of irresponsibility and entitlement which was almost guaranteed to end up with the wolves being put down after seriously injuring one or more people.)