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#asoiaf theories – @zaldrizer-sovesi on Tumblr
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All Dragons Must Fly

@zaldrizer-sovesi / zaldrizer-sovesi.tumblr.com

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What are your favorite crack theories? As in, things that may not be probable at all but which you enjoyed reading about (for positive or negative reasons) or got a good laugh out of? They don't seem to be very popular in the tumblr fandom but I love them.

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I get a kick out of the wild theories too! A lot of the more intricate and out-there ones are great because they’ve motivated someone to go dig for a ton of details that actually are in the text but I never would have noticed myself. Even if they ultimately go in an “a + b = purple” direction, it’s fun to have someone point out a and b, and then marvel at the creativity that gets them to purple.

  • The Grand Northern Conspiracy might not qualify because it runs the gamut from “crack” to “reasonable” to “hardly disputable,” but the crack parts of it are still fun. 
  • I never make it even halfway through one of the notorious Preston Jacobs theories, but the first videos in his series can be really good. Like this analysis of the various coalitions at the kingsmoot, which has a bunch of details that went right over my head when I read AFFC.
  • I don’t buy that Barbrey Dustin wrote the Pink Letter but I love the idea.
  • The most intense is the Winterfell Huis Clos, which is probably novella-length on its own. Another one with a lot of great details from the story, even if it makes a lot of leaps from “this is plausible” to “this is happening.”
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Anonymous asked:

Do you believe in the great northern conspiracy theory? Because I think that's what happens in the end based on S6 conclusion. The northern lords together declare Jon as KiTN. Only with Robb's will to validate stuff..

I think it’s partly true. There are pockets of resistance to the Boltons throughout the North, but it’s unlikely they were coordinated into one grand conspiracy before Roose summoned them all to Winterfell for Ramsay’s wedding. The North is enormous, and to coordinate by mail they’d have to trust every maester in the region not to be a spy.

My general sense of it is that there’s a Small-to-Middling Northeastern Conspiracy, led by Wyman Manderly and backing Rickon, and a Small-to-Middling Northwestern Conspiracy led by Maege Mormont and backing Jon. (It’s not impossible that some dissident Riverlanders and former members of the BWB have formed their own faction or joined up with the northwestern group, though I’m less sold on that.)

Both groups have the same primary objective of crushing the Boltons. They have diverging secondary objectives and emotional investments - the northwesterners are explicitly nationalist, while the northeasterners really want to make the Boltons and Lannisters pay. Their respective claimants do make sense: honoring the Young Wolf’s will is its own statement of Northern legitimacy for the nationalists, while sticking to conventional succession and declaring for Stannis shows Manderly’s faction looking south. That reflects the broader cultural diversity of the North, in that White Harbor and other towns to the east or south of Winterfell are more Andalized, while the farther-flung rural areas keep to the older way.

That said, I doubt the different factions are opposed to each other or unwilling to work together. I think the different approaches are more reflections of cultural preferences and limited information. Thenortheasterners were loyal to Robb, and the northwesterners are with Stannis now. (He really should lay off the heart trees, though, that crowd doesn’t care enough about him to tolerate disrespect to the old gods.) They mostly care about dealing with the Boltons.

There wasn’t a grand northern conspiracy before, but there sure is now:

"I have just come from the high table," Lord Wyman went on. "I have eaten too much, as ever, and all White Harbor knows my bowels are bad. My friends of Frey will not question a lengthy visit to the privy, we hope." He turned his cup over. "There. You will drink and I will not. Sit. Time is short, and there is much we need to say.” (ADWD, Davos IV)
"We must look at Manderly," muttered Ser Aenys Frey. "Lord Wyman loves us not."   
Ryswell was not convinced. "He loves his steaks and chops and meat pies, though. Prowling the castle by dark would require him to leave the table. The only time he does that is when he seeks the privy for one of his hourlong squats." (ADWD, A Ghost in Winterfell)

The people inside Winterfell are mostly older men on that final hunt, to save food for their families and bring the Boltons down with them. Lord Wyman will put together whatever seems most likely to work, and those of us who are following the show have a pretty good guess what that’ll be.

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Anonymous asked:

Hi. I absolutely love your metas. I too buy into the theory that bloodraven is warging into Mormont's Raven. But do you think when he asks for Corn at times he means to say Horn? Because there's an instance in ADwD when Sam enters Jon's chambers and the Raven descends on him asking for Corn. Assuming the old broken horn Jon gave Sam is the horn of joramun.

Hey there, and thank you!

My man Bloodraven! I tend to forget that this is technically a theory rather than explicit canon.

The corn gag seems pretty consistent to me, and IIRC there aren’t other instances where the raven can’t pronounce what it means. I think “corn” usually just means “corn”: tree gods don’t get to experience the pleasure of eating, so he likes doing it while he’s warging. Sometimes he also seems to be alluding to the corn king archetype of a mythic figure who dies and is resurrected in tandem with the transitions of harvest to winter to spring.

(My theory about Mormont’s raven is that it’s actually Bran freaking out at the end of ADWD, partly because the crow has invoked the corn king myth enough times to suggest that he knows what’s coming. But in that chapter of ADWD, the crow is agitated, as if it wants to prevent Jon’s death - less like a world-class metaphysical chessmaster and more like a kid who loves his brother.)

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Anonymous asked:

Do you think its possible that Dany's burgeoning 'slayer of lies' identity could eventually be a catalyst in the public reveal of Jon's identity? Casting down Aegon, and then helping raise Jon up to the level at which the much-prejudiced lords of the realm could look to him for leadership in the climactic war for the dawn?

I’m inclined to think not. I’m not actually sure Jon’s identity will be revealed publicly, except maybe in the songs or old Maester Samwell’s histories, but if it is it’ll be set off by Rhaegal or Viserion’s response to Jon and then confirmed by everyone going “ohhh, yeah” about Ned’s cover story. I don’t think that’s the kind of lie Daenerys is destined to slay - while the truth may end up mattering to a lot of people, the lie is only going to matter to Jon, and he has avenues to the truth that are much closer to home than Daenerys.

My prediction as of now (though the prophecies are, wisely, written vaguely enough that there are a lot of potential avenues) is that “slayer of lies” refers specifically to the men who are usurping her destiny: Aegon, who wrongly claims her secular authority as the Targaryen heir, and Stannis, who wrongly holds himself out as TPTWP and the champion of fire.

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hey! Huge fan. I sort of agree with your predictions about the fate of Monster. It would have more impact on Jon to be brought back to life when the price is a child he swore to protect. But do you think that sacrificing Monster will work. Melisandre has been going on about King's blood since forever and there are other parties who agree with her. So do you think the whole thing is hogwash or King's blood is a thing?

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Hey there!

Oooof, usually I love hearing how right I am, but I wouldn’t mind being talked out of this one….

Whether or not that particular sacrifice would work doesn’t necessarily tell us anything about king’s blood, right, since Monster does not have king’s blood. There is some suggestion throughout the story that blood sacrifice is a source of magical power, but even that is a tough thing to prove.

As for king’s blood in theory, I was going to say that’s just Melisandre either making it up to push Stannis toward that final sacrifice or making one of her many attribution errors. And my instinct is that it sounds silly. But, turns out it’s not just her and her lackeys:

Two kings to wake the dragon. The father first and then the son, so both die kings. The words had been murmured by one of the queen’s men as Maester Aemon had cleaned his wounds. Jon had tried to dismiss them as his fever talking. Aemon had demurred. “There is power in a king’s blood,” the old maester had warned, “and better men than Stannis have done worse things than this.” (ADWD, Jon I)

If Maester Aemon believes it, then there’s something to it.

It’s possible there’s a correlation/causation issue here. There’s a kind of mythic sense to the idea that fire magic is particularly responsive to the blood of the dragon, which is how Maester Aemon is likely to think of kings and possibly what Melisandre senses in the Baratheon line. Or that the idea of “casting long shadows in the world” is less metaphorical than she thinks it is, and shadowbinding is more effective when it’s connected to the life force of someone who has great influence in the world, and she’s wrongly assuming that it’s about “king’s blood” (many kings are influential people so king’s blood might work more often, but that specific title isn’t why it works). Those explanations make more sense to me. Why would R’hllor (R’hllor the personal deity or R’hllor the anthropomorphized representation of fire-related forces of nature) care about Andal inheritance laws? What constitutes a king in Essos, where red priests learn and practice? Khals, ceremonial princes, triarchs, what?

Granted, I don’t know exactly what the sacrifice would necessarily be for, because fire magic resurrections aren’t “only death pays for life,” they are “life force pays for life.” Thoros never used blood magic to resurrect Beric, nor Beric to resurrect Lady Stoneheart. (Not intentionally, anyway, and intent probably does matter for this, otherwise there’s usually power zipping around the atmosphere and never being tapped.) Melisandre does know how to do other spells on her own steam, and the basic theory behind the kiss of life is something that red priests generally seem to know. But Mel, BEING MEL, is almost certainly going to be doing whatever she’s trying to do the hard way.

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Anonymous asked:

A diplomatic truce between men and the others, they exchange horns men have the horn that can break the wall, the others have the horn that'll bring dragons, neither will want to blow and could fit in with the title of the series?

Mmmm, I’ve never gotten on board with any of the treaty theories.

Even if that were the case, though, the horns were both found in the wrong domains. The Horn of Winter was north of the Wall at the Fist of the First Men, and the Dragonbinder was on the other side of the world.

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Anonymous asked:

Okay, now what shape do you imagine the fates of Aemon and Monster will take?

I don’t see any reason Aemon and Gilly won’t make it to Horn Hill. And, because there’s a pretty good chance Randyll won’t make it out of King’s Landing (CRISPY-FRIED JUSTICE, as far as I’m concerned), they’ll have a nice life there. Sam’s mother and sisters sound like very kind people. And the only thing we’ve heard about Dickon’s personality is that he’s the one who heard about the cruel wager over Brienne and reported it to Randyll. Randyll put a stop to it because military discipline is important to him, but Dickon was only a pre-teen at the time, and a kid that age is more likely to be motivated by right and wrong than by an understanding of unit cohesion. So maybe his awful father hasn’t ruined him just yet and he’ll be decent to his supposed nephew.

As for Monster, I want desperately to be wrong about this, but....Val is the only person at Castle Black who knows that he’s not a prince. I know everyone thinks Melisandre will sacrifice Shireen to wake Azor Ahai, but Stannis seems doomed to go full Agamemnon, and Shireen isn’t tied into Jon’s own decisions in the same way Monster is.

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Anonymous asked:

Oooh. nice. king arthur and his knights awaken from their slumber beneath the hill but ~SURPRISE!~ they were never the heroes we'd been promised and now they're all monstrous, robert strong-style nasties (but smarter maybe??

I’ve actually always associated the King Arthur mythos with the Azor Ahai Reborn prophecy? I mean.

"In ancient books of Asshai it is written that there will come a day after a long summer when the stars bleed and the cold breath of darkness falls heavy on the world. In this dread hour a warrior shall draw from the fire a burning sword. And that sword shall be Lightbringer, the Red Sword of Heroes, and he who clasps it shall be Azor Ahai come again, and the darkness shall flee before him."

Someone who knows more about Arthurian legend than “read The Once And Future King in English class once” probably has a lot more to say than I do about King Arthur and AAR, but the key elements are there, right? Tragic romance, magic sword, time of darkest need, mythic hero-king resurrection. ASOIAF’s interrogation of that so far seems to be, yeah, yeah, we’re holding out for a hero and all, but the best spin even this guy’s biggest fans put on him admits that he murdered his wife in cold blood! Are we really sure we want him back?! (Of course, as is equally possible as in the case of the Night’s King, there could well be a lot of material details we don’t know.)

So that’s how I think the last few books have picked up on Arthurian legend, making it more of a morally dubious thing than a total “haha, the heroes are the villains, gotcha!” But it’s certainly possible? There’s no rule that the narrative can’t do a black versus grey dual interrogation of the archetype.

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Anonymous asked:

With you on hoping for the black box of horror angle, though I'm wondering, given the ever increasing presence of the deep ones, if grrm's prepping us for another possibility, too... I mean, although the unfathomable terror of the Others is pretty damn effective, the one thing that'd top that is if it turns out the upper echelons of the Others weren't just skinchangers and first men altered by the Children. Like, what if the others are the ancestors of our current Stark protagonists?

That would be a really interesting parallel for Daenerys and her fight to dismantle the despicable system which her dragonlord ancestors created. Depending on how much of the story is true/missing, there’s also the outside possibility that they’re distant relatives though the Night’s King. (Old Nan says he was a Stark, so. That’s good enough for me.)

In fairness, though, the Others are a threat to all human life regardless of their origin. The skinchanger origin theory reminds me a lot of the Mountain/Robert Strong. He technically was human at some point, but that has no bearing on the fact that he’s gotta go.

The Deep Ones have so far struck me as a piece of worldbuilding to remind us that there’s never just one singular fight that people have to face, even in the metaphysical realm. The Others are the problem now, something else was the problem while the Others were dormant, some of our characters will see to it that humanity lives to fight another day. And it will have to fight - whether it’s the Deep Ones, or a human somewhere figures out gunpowder, the story isn’t heading for either annihilation or utopia, and the only other option is a world that still has problems.

Not to say that the Old Ones rising wouldn’t be awesome, because it totally would.

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Anonymous asked:

Do you have any views of theories on the 13th Lord Commander of the Night's Watch aka the Night's King? Like what do you think his motivations where and who do believe he actually was ?

Thanks for the ask! (Honestly, I started out this draft saying “damn, I can’t believe I don’t have any theories for my favorite of Old Nan’s stories!” and by the time I was done that was no longer true.)

His identity is not particularly mysterious.

“Some might say he was a Bolton,” Old Nan would always end. “Some say Umber, Flint, or Norrey. Some would have you think he was a Woodfoot, from them that ruled Bear Island before the ironmen came. He never was. He was a Stark of Winterfell, the brother of the man who brought him down.” She always pinched him on the nose then, he would never forget it. “He was a Stark of Winterfell, and who can say? Mayhaps his name was Brandon. Mayhaps he slept in this very room.” (ASOS, Bran IV)

Unless we’re talking about a really impressive cover-up here - and in fairness, anything’s possible - it’s unlikely that his name was actually Brandon, since the brother who brought him down was (supposedly) also named Brandon. But substantively Old Nan generally tends to be, well, on the nose.

What he was doing, however, is more ambiguous. It’s almost certainly important, as there are so many layers of unreliability that there has to be something useful in there. The in-universe teller of the story is a fallible human who heard it from another character in-universe who may have remembered it wrong, and then there’s the usual telephone game of folk stories, and we’re told several times in-universe that nothing from the Age of Heroes is really reliable, and then on top of that we (allegedly) have the people contemporary with the Night’s King who actively tried to control the narrative by destroying all records of the Night’s King while continuing to use him as a cautionary tale, ensuring that his expungement from history would itself be remembered. Narrative cover-ups this complicated don’t usually happen for nothing.

The First Men did not have any kind of taboo on human sacrifice - it’s implied in ACOK that wildlings still practice it - so it’s not a moral aversion to the “strange sacrifices” that caused the reaction it did. It was, supposedly, that the sacrifices were to the white walkers. But as far as we’ve seen from Craster, sacrificing to them is a a protection racket that doesn’t actually give a person power of their own. So what kind of magic was happening? Were their wills being bound by their being turned into wights? Were they collaborating willingly (either as the Northerners would see it, or actually willingly) but figured they could throw the Lord Commander under the bus by claiming they’d been compelled? What happened to those sworn brothers, anyway?

Who was the corpse queen? Did she even exist, or was she an after-the-fact invention to deflect blame? (A common role of female characters, as we all know too well.) If she was real, how did she get on that side of the wall? If she’s a wight or a white walker, she shouldn’t have been able to cross the Wall, certainly not during a flirtatious merry chase. So how could he meet this magical creature and bring her to the Nightfort? Did it happen before the Wall was actually finished? Could that have happened during the Long Night? (That’s when the Watch was supposedly founded, but it’s not too much of a stretch to think that the Watch could run through its first twelve commanders during an extended crisis.)

So anyway, here’s my longshot theory: I think he was the person tasked with completing the Wall. He wasn’t sacrificing to the Others, he was sacrificing to the old gods.

[A] bearded man forced a captive down onto his knees before the heart tree. A white-haired woman stepped toward them through a drift of dark red leaves, a bronze sickle in her hand.
“No,” said Bran, “no, don’t,” but they could not hear him, no more than his father had. The woman grabbed the captive by the hair, hooked the sickle round his throat, and slashed. And through the mist of centuries the broken boy could only watch as the man’s feet drummed against the earth … but as his life flowed out of him in a red tide, Brandon Stark could taste the blood. (Bran III, ADWD)

This is the last of Bran’s visions; implicitly, it’s the metaphysical cornerstone of Winterfell. That’s what it took for one castle - a fantastic fairy tale castle, but still, one castle. Blood magic. Even with the help of the giants and/or the Children and/or a mysterious blue-eyed zombie witch, a structure like the Wall takes a lot of juice. Maybe the Night’s King was explicitly asked to do this; maybe he’d grown desperate and gone rogue.

Maybe he was the final sacrifice, his blood used to seal the Wall’s magic.

Of course you’d want to destroy all records of that, and to create the harshest taboo you possibly could - something to the degree of depicting him as an enemy agent. You’d have to. Not as punishment, and not just to protect the Stark brand, but because you absolutely can’t let a blood magic arms race get started. The Wall is one thing, because it will stand for thousands of years to protect millions of people against the terrible cold - and even that is a painful ethical choice to make. It is blood shed for peace from the unthinkable. (It makes sense that you’d find this at Storm’s End as well: the storm god and his monsters are major threats which merit magical protection.) But that is not how anyone else would use it. It would be used for warfare between humans, leading to blood shed in vain.

It certainly supports the Free Folk’s grievances if the rest of the North was about to leave them stranded in enemy territory, a reflection of the blood sacrifice of the few to save the many. And it fits in some of the broader themes of the story: sometimes there’s no good choice, sometimes the least bad choice dooms a person’s name forever. Sometimes we mean well but go too far; sometimes going too far is the only way to go far enough. Some of the structures  that hold up our world are built on events that we find unthinkable.

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Anonymous asked:

Due to Jon being inside Ghost a a warg for quite some time will effect him greatly when returns to his body, do you think Jon will develope with lik qualities when h rid resurrected, like say being feral or primal ?

It’s certainly possible. Like with the resurrection magic, I think the skinchanger magic is among the least of his problems. I think he’ll be less likely to restrain himself from acting on his bolder and more aggressive instincts - but is that really about the external influence of the wolf? He already has those instincts, though he’s previously been more likely to try and contain them. But his experience in ADWD, months of trying to drag people toward necessary changes culminating in the trauma of being stabbed, is the kind of experience that would change a person without any supernatural interference.

On the other hand, he’s been experiencing some degree of elision with Ghost for some time.

I am a man, not a wolf. (Jon II)
Ghost is more alive than I am. (Jon III)
Ghost was closer than a friend. Ghost was part of him. (Jon III)
Of late, Jon Snow sometimes felt as if he and the direwolf were one, even awake. (Jon VII)

And that pattern could mean a couple of different things. Maybe it shows that he’s already close enough to Ghost that he won’t have to change too much to adapt. Or maybe it shows the strength of the current he is about to abruptly stop swimming against.

But yes, I think you’re right that we are about to see a different Jon, more fearless, less inhibited. I think that Ghost will howl.

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Anonymous asked:

Given the facts we no this will most likely not happen, but what do you would happen if Jon was resurrected as an Other/Whitewalker?

That’s a tough one to answer because, you know, is he still Jon at that point? Because then it’s not so much resurrection as it is transformation, and we don’t have any data to go on with a human -> white walker transformation, if it’s even possible. IMO wights are not people in the way that the humans whose bodies and memories they use are people, but that’s not really an equivalent comparison because Others do, as a species, seem to have the intelligence that might allow for individuality, and wights don’t.

IMO the closest possibility to this scenario is that he comes back and people at the wall assume he is an Other (or, at least, decide to behave as if he’s one of them, because they already don’t like him). This would mirror the cloud of suspicion that he dealt with when he came back from his undercover mission with Mance, and be a Wall-proportionate examination of humanity’s tendency to shoot ourselves in the foot by alienating each other.

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Anonymous asked:

Any predictions for Asha? Given that at this point she holds many values and traits more in common with Jon or Arya than most of her kin, I'm increasingly certain her arc will fold into a pro-Stark narrative. Something's always struck weirdly about her name, too; the similarity with 'Arya' being a little jarring but also indicative, especially when D&D elect to change 'Asha' into a name that strengthens the connection. Your thoughts on this are appreciated, as per.

Hey there! Thanks for the question.

Asha's perspective is definitely a lot more pragmatic than the suicidally stupid/insane Greyjoy tradition. I don’t know if she’s exactly pro-Stark, but at least she’s smart enough to know that being overtly anti-Stark is a dead end. That’s an interesting comparison to draw to Jon and Arya, actually. Certainly Arya would try to emulate her. And the ironborn are like the wildlings in a lot of ways, so Jon would at least know how to deal with her.

I think her current plan is to use Theon’s survival as pretext to call another kingsmoot. This time around, Victarion is on the other end of the world and can’t split the anti-Euron vote. (Of course, he could come back and play the same card, but there’s good odds that he’ll die on his mission, or at least not think of the legal loophole.) She can either run herself, or put Theon forth as her puppet.

I’m going to talk a little bit about one of the released TWOW chapters, so it’s under the cut in case you’re avoiding spoilers altogether.

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Anonymous asked:

What do you expect to happen immediately upon Jon's resurrection? (Interested in any take you might have on this, but especially when it comes to what happens to the Wildlings and, separately, the traitors.)

SUCH an exciting question!

I think shit is going to go sideways before Jon’s resurrection, or possibly before he’s even done bleeding out. When Jon leaves the Shieldhall, Ser Patrek has attacked Wun Wun, Wun Wun is hulking out, “Northmen, free folk, and queen’s men” are coming out into the yard with swords in hand, which is agitating Wun Wun even further - and then Wick and Marsh, honors graduates of the Joffrey Baratheon School for Strategic Geniuses, attack Jon.

So here’s the situation: Stannis’ men think that their king is dead and so are definitely having a crisis of authority and probably having a crisis of faith. The Watch is split into two factions, neither of whom have anyone with the authority to get them to cool it. The Free Folk probably don’t have any particular investment in Jon himself, but they’ll be completely right to assume that the attack on him is the opening of hostilities against them, and they have no reason not to take Castle Black for themselves. And then you have the angry giant, who has gotten attached to Jon.

As if all that wasn’t bad enough, it only takes one of these people to think to unleash Ghost. Who isn’t just Ghost anymore.

I don’t see any outcome for this other than full-on pandemonium. Who or what ever is going to bring him back - presumably Mel but who knows - isn’t going to be able to get to his body for some time. Insofar as anyone can “win” in this situation, I think the wildlings are likely to take over Castle Black: they still have their numbers, but the NW’s discipline has gone out the window, so they have the advantage.

So moving from the near-guaranteed to the possible, I think there’s a sizable window for Jon-as-Ghost to wreck the traitors. As satisfying as that sounds, I’m not sure. The mutineers are weak and scared and not much more. And on top of that, Jon is a powerful warg, but not a particularly disciplined one, so I don’t know if he’s going to limit the attack to people who deserve it. Perhaps it’ll look like a kind of parallel to the panic he sees in Wun Wun, actually.

From there things get really difficult to predict, because Jon is going to be different. I don’t really see him going full-on dark side because…honestly, that sounds kind of cheap, compared to the strength of his storyline so far. But he’ll be changed by the trauma of the attack, the painful truths he’s going to learn about his own identity during his journey to the underworld, and whatever magical effect resurrection may or may not have in and of itself - and Jon is a dangerous guy at the best of times. And on top of that, you have the difficulty of, how does one raise an army against the undead, while for all intents and purposes being one of them? There’s a lot of fantastic possibilities, most of which I’m sure I haven’t thought of yet.

Well, and Ramsay Bolton is a dead freak walking. I’m pretty sure about that.

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Tyrell speculation

So I don’t really go in for the more involved Tyrell conspiracy theories, largely because the Tyrells strike me as deft opportunists more than anything else.

Still.

“Loras was the first one through the breach when the ram broke the castle gates. He rode straight into the dragon’s mouth, they say, all in white and swinging his morningstar about his head, slaying left and right.”
Megga Tyrell was sobbing openly by then. “How did he die?” she asked. “ Who killed him?”
“No one man has that honor,” said Cersei. “Ser Loras took a quarrel through the thigh and another through the shoulder, but he fought on gallantly, though the blood was streaming from him. Later he suffered a mace blow that broke some ribs. After that . . . but no, I would spare you the worst of it.”
“Tell me,” said Margaery. “I command it.”
Command it? Cersei paused a moment, then decided she would let that pass. “The defenders fell back to an inner keep once the curtain wall was taken. Loras led the attack there as well. He was doused with boiling oil.”

And then he looked down and fell off a cliff! With an ACME anvil right behind him!

Hypothetically, if Loras still wants to be the one to make Stannis pay for Renly’s death, he’s going about it the right way. He seizes the opportunity presented by the ironborn’s attack to capture Stannis’ own castle by way of the high road. He wins the day in a dramatic, memorable, and personal way, just daring Stannis to come and take the castle back. And he gives himself a viable excuse not to report back to his Kingsguard post right away, which therefore doesn’t allow Cersei to replace him with another one of her lackeys.

Now, Cersei’s report (improbable as the details sound) could be true, and of course it’s a mistake to rule out grand schemes conclusively. But there is a third option which fits neatly into the nimbly reactive Tyrell MO. Loras has significant incentive to exaggerate his injuries wildly, or invent them completely. And it’s worth pointing out that, if this is the plan, it could actually work. According to the timeline, Loras takes Dragonstone while Stannis is on progress between Deepwood Motte and Winterfell, with even patchier communications than usual. At least, this most recent injury by the Tyrells doesn’t come up in Theon’s TWOW preview chapter, though Stannis does (of course) hold forth about the last time Mace Tyrell tried to take his castle. I’m not sure that he won’t take the bait.

[Show aside: Obviously, this theory ties in with Mother’s Mercy, though it was mostly formed sometime before the episode aired. I’m in favor of deviations from the books generally and liked Brienne’s execution of Stannis specifically BUT I also am not entirely sure that it will end up being much of a change for Stannis to go down in retribution for this brother’s death.]

Whether his injuries are real or not, vengeance for Renly is likely to have primarily motivated Loras, and maybe that is enough to have swayed Mace into making a move. (Mace says he expects the Boltons to take care of Stannis for them, but, you know, Mace says a lot of things.) Regardless, Mace is always one to capitalize on an opportunity.

And oh, right:

“I never saw a braver knight,” Waters said, “but he turned what could have been a bloodless victory into a slaughter. A thousand men are dead, or near enough to make no matter. Most of them our own. And not just common men, Your Grace, but knights and young lords, the best and the bravest.”

“Our own” being the royal fleet, not the Redwynes. It’s not impossible that Loras was being rash - but if the Tyrells were to take a page out of Roose Bolton’s playbook, he wouldn’t have done any differently.

Kevan Lannister, at least, smells bullshit in House Tyrell’s account of the situation on Dragonstone.

“No wealth was found on Dragonstone, I promise you. My son’s men have searched every inch of that damp and dreary island and turned up not so much as a single gemstone or speck of gold. Nor any sign of this fabled hoard of dragon eggs.”
Kevan Lannister had seen Dragonstone with his own eyes. He doubted very much that Loras Tyrell had searched every inch of that ancient stronghold. The Valyrians had raised it, after all, and all their works stank of sorcery. And Ser Loras was young, prone to all the rash judgments of youth, and had been grievously wounded storming the castle besides. But it would not do to remind Tyrell that his favorite son was fallible.

Mace’s claim to have searched Dragonstone in its entirety is as OTT as Loras’ supposed injuries. And if Kevan did entirely believe that Loras was as gruesomely wounded as reported, I’m not sure that would be fourth on the list of reasons why Loras probably didn’t search the castle thoroughly. Kevan doesn’t underestimate Mace as badly as other characters, but he still isn’t as skeptical as he should be.

There are a couple of questions that open up if the Tyrells are rolling with this particular punch. Aurane Waters would need to have been bought or misinformed, both of which are plausible. More tantalizing is the question of Aegon, and Mace’s vehement dismissal of him during the ADWD epilogue.

“Connington is moving on Storm’s End.”
“If it is Jon Connington,” said Randyll Tarly.
“Storm’s End.” Lord Mace Tyrell grunted the words. “He cannot take Storm’s End. Not if he were Aegon the Conqueror. And if he does, what of it? Stannis holds it now. Let the castle pass from one pretender to another, why should that trouble us? I shall recapture it after my daughter’s innocence is proved.”
“As for Connington …”
“If it is him,” Lord Randyll said.
“… as for Connington,” Tyrell repeated, “what victories has he ever won that we should fear him? He could have ended Robert’s Rebellion at Stoney Sept. He failed. Just as the Golden Company has always failed. Some may rush to join them, aye. The realm is well rid of such fools.”
“[W]e must destroy Connington and his pretender now, before Daenerys Stormborn can come west.”
Mace Tyrell crossed his arms. “I mean to do just that, ser. After the trials.”

Mace is insisting on actions - well, inactions - which will allow the invaders to tear through the Stormlands unchecked as Margaery’s virtue is publicly established and the Lannisters destroy their own dynasty. At the very least, he refrains from openly moving against another potential claimant to the throne. I suppose it’s not impossible that he’s a stunningly lucky savant who’s stumbling into yet another golden opportunity. But it’s worth pointing out that, if he’s passively obstructing a move against Aegon, this would be the third time he’s used a similar strategy, and it hasn’t failed him yet.

“Tell me, ser, where did this man [Cersei’s champion] come from?” Mace Tyrell demanded. “Why have we never heard his name before? He does not speak, he will not show his face, he is never seen without his armor. Do we know for a certainty that he is even a knight?”.....
Mace Tyrell could not seem to see beyond the threat to his own daughter. “His Grace named Ser Robert to the Kingsguard,” Ser Kevan reminded him, “and Qyburn vouches for the man as well. Be that as it may, we need Ser Robert to prevail, my lords. If my niece is proved guilty of these treasons, the legitimacy of her children will be called into question. If Tommen ceases to be a king, Margaery will cease to be a queen.” He let Tyrell chew on that a moment.

JUST SAYIN’.

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