Tyrell speculation
“Loras was the first one through the breach when the ram broke the castle gates. He rode straight into the dragon’s mouth, they say, all in white and swinging his morningstar about his head, slaying left and right.”
Megga Tyrell was sobbing openly by then. “How did he die?” she asked. “ Who killed him?”
“No one man has that honor,” said Cersei. “Ser Loras took a quarrel through the thigh and another through the shoulder, but he fought on gallantly, though the blood was streaming from him. Later he suffered a mace blow that broke some ribs. After that . . . but no, I would spare you the worst of it.”
“Tell me,” said Margaery. “I command it.”
Command it? Cersei paused a moment, then decided she would let that pass. “The defenders fell back to an inner keep once the curtain wall was taken. Loras led the attack there as well. He was doused with boiling oil.”
And then he looked down and fell off a cliff! With an ACME anvil right behind him!
Hypothetically, if Loras still wants to be the one to make Stannis pay for Renly’s death, he’s going about it the right way. He seizes the opportunity presented by the ironborn’s attack to capture Stannis’ own castle by way of the high road. He wins the day in a dramatic, memorable, and personal way, just daring Stannis to come and take the castle back. And he gives himself a viable excuse not to report back to his Kingsguard post right away, which therefore doesn’t allow Cersei to replace him with another one of her lackeys.
Now, Cersei’s report (improbable as the details sound) could be true, and of course it’s a mistake to rule out grand schemes conclusively. But there is a third option which fits neatly into the nimbly reactive Tyrell MO. Loras has significant incentive to exaggerate his injuries wildly, or invent them completely. And it’s worth pointing out that, if this is the plan, it could actually work. According to the timeline, Loras takes Dragonstone while Stannis is on progress between Deepwood Motte and Winterfell, with even patchier communications than usual. At least, this most recent injury by the Tyrells doesn’t come up in Theon’s TWOW preview chapter, though Stannis does (of course) hold forth about the last time Mace Tyrell tried to take his castle. I’m not sure that he won’t take the bait.
[Show aside: Obviously, this theory ties in with Mother’s Mercy, though it was mostly formed sometime before the episode aired. I’m in favor of deviations from the books generally and liked Brienne’s execution of Stannis specifically BUT I also am not entirely sure that it will end up being much of a change for Stannis to go down in retribution for this brother’s death.]
Whether his injuries are real or not, vengeance for Renly is likely to have primarily motivated Loras, and maybe that is enough to have swayed Mace into making a move. (Mace says he expects the Boltons to take care of Stannis for them, but, you know, Mace says a lot of things.) Regardless, Mace is always one to capitalize on an opportunity.
“I never saw a braver knight,” Waters said, “but he turned what could have been a bloodless victory into a slaughter. A thousand men are dead, or near enough to make no matter. Most of them our own. And not just common men, Your Grace, but knights and young lords, the best and the bravest.”
“Our own” being the royal fleet, not the Redwynes. It’s not impossible that Loras was being rash - but if the Tyrells were to take a page out of Roose Bolton’s playbook, he wouldn’t have done any differently.
Kevan Lannister, at least, smells bullshit in House Tyrell’s account of the situation on Dragonstone.
“No wealth was found on Dragonstone, I promise you. My son’s men have searched every inch of that damp and dreary island and turned up not so much as a single gemstone or speck of gold. Nor any sign of this fabled hoard of dragon eggs.”
Kevan Lannister had seen Dragonstone with his own eyes. He doubted very much that Loras Tyrell had searched every inch of that ancient stronghold. The Valyrians had raised it, after all, and all their works stank of sorcery. And Ser Loras was young, prone to all the rash judgments of youth, and had been grievously wounded storming the castle besides. But it would not do to remind Tyrell that his favorite son was fallible.
Mace’s claim to have searched Dragonstone in its entirety is as OTT as Loras’ supposed injuries. And if Kevan did entirely believe that Loras was as gruesomely wounded as reported, I’m not sure that would be fourth on the list of reasons why Loras probably didn’t search the castle thoroughly. Kevan doesn’t underestimate Mace as badly as other characters, but he still isn’t as skeptical as he should be.
There are a couple of questions that open up if the Tyrells are rolling with this particular punch. Aurane Waters would need to have been bought or misinformed, both of which are plausible. More tantalizing is the question of Aegon, and Mace’s vehement dismissal of him during the ADWD epilogue.
“Connington is moving on Storm’s End.”
“If it is Jon Connington,” said Randyll Tarly.
“Storm’s End.” Lord Mace Tyrell grunted the words. “He cannot take Storm’s End. Not if he were Aegon the Conqueror. And if he does, what of it? Stannis holds it now. Let the castle pass from one pretender to another, why should that trouble us? I shall recapture it after my daughter’s innocence is proved.”
“As for Connington …”
“If it is him,” Lord Randyll said.
“… as for Connington,” Tyrell repeated, “what victories has he ever won that we should fear him? He could have ended Robert’s Rebellion at Stoney Sept. He failed. Just as the Golden Company has always failed. Some may rush to join them, aye. The realm is well rid of such fools.”
“[W]e must destroy Connington and his pretender now, before Daenerys Stormborn can come west.”
Mace Tyrell crossed his arms. “I mean to do just that, ser. After the trials.”
Mace is insisting on actions - well, inactions - which will allow the invaders to tear through the Stormlands unchecked as Margaery’s virtue is publicly established and the Lannisters destroy their own dynasty. At the very least, he refrains from openly moving against another potential claimant to the throne. I suppose it’s not impossible that he’s a stunningly lucky savant who’s stumbling into yet another golden opportunity. But it’s worth pointing out that, if he’s passively obstructing a move against Aegon, this would be the third time he’s used a similar strategy, and it hasn’t failed him yet.
“Tell me, ser, where did this man [Cersei’s champion] come from?” Mace Tyrell demanded. “Why have we never heard his name before? He does not speak, he will not show his face, he is never seen without his armor. Do we know for a certainty that he is even a knight?”.....
Mace Tyrell could not seem to see beyond the threat to his own daughter. “His Grace named Ser Robert to the Kingsguard,” Ser Kevan reminded him, “and Qyburn vouches for the man as well. Be that as it may, we need Ser Robert to prevail, my lords. If my niece is proved guilty of these treasons, the legitimacy of her children will be called into question. If Tommen ceases to be a king, Margaery will cease to be a queen.” He let Tyrell chew on that a moment.