Satanic Capitalist

Brazil market anticipates higher policy rate after Trump’s election

Financial institutions raise Selic forecasts as Donald Trump’s return and domestic pressures heighten Brazil’s inflation and policy uncertainty

Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency and its potential impacts on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy add to the challenging domestic outlook for Brazil’s Central Bank. Facing robust economic activity, inflation expectations that have diverged from the 3% target, and fiscal policy uncertainty in Brazil, the Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM) has led both local and international financial institutions to raise projections for the current tightening cycle, anticipating a more conservative stance in the months ahead.

The COPOM met expectations by raising the Selic policy rate to 11.25% per year from 10.75% this week. The lack of forward guidance and what the market perceived as a more hawkish tone led to a series of revisions to interest rate forecasts.

Débora Nogueira, chief economist at Tenax Capital, explained that Mr. Trump’s significant election victory raises the likelihood of implementing his campaign promises in the first year. “Trump’s win was our baseline case, but with such a strong popular vote and the [Republican] party controlling both legislative houses, his campaign pledges—likely inflationary—should take effect right in the first year,” she said.

Considering a more challenging external environment, the COPOM’s more conservative message also led Tenax to adjust its forecast for Brazil’s monetary tightening. The firm now expects a Selic rate of 13.25% next year, up from 12.75%.

Continue reading.

Love me, love me not

Boosted in part by the Latino vote, Donald Trump emerged victorious in the U.S elections and will return to the White House next year. 

But the billionaire’s triumph has gone down differently across Latin America.

Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has endorsed Kamala Harris, so was naturally cautious about the outcome. Meanwhile, the region’s major right-wing figures Jair Bolsonaro and Javier Milei had plenty of reasons to smile about the Trump win.  

Mr. Bolsonaro is currently barred from running for public office until at least 2030, but hopes that having an important ideological ally in the White House could help turn the tide in his direction, potentially putting pressure on Brazil’s Supreme Court to overturn his election ban.  

Continue reading.

Bolsonaro Sees Trump's Victory as Crucial Step Toward His Own Political Comeback

Currently ineligible, former president claims to have a dream of running in the 2026 election for the presidency

Jair Bolsonaro, 69, stated this Wednesday (6) that he sees Donald Trump’s election to the White House as an "extremely important step" for his "dream" of running in the 2026 election and returning to the Palácio do Planalto.

"It’s like a thousand-step journey; you have to take the first one, then the tenth. And Trump is an extremely important step," the former president told Folha.

For him, the Republican will send a message that his ineligibility was a scheme to remove him from the race.

Continue reading.

Construction consortium wins second school PPP in São Paulo

Group offered a 22.5% discount on monthly payments the state will make to the concessionaire, with the contract earmarking R$1bn for construction of 16 schools

The SP + Escolas Consortium, a group of construction companies, won the bid for the second round of the Public-Private Partnership (PPP) for schools in São Paulo. The group offered a 22.51% discount on the monthly payments that the state will pay to the concessionaire. Payments, which will start after project completion, will amount to R$11.55 million.

The concession requires R$1 billion in investments to construct 16 schools across cities including Aguaí, Arujá, Atibaia, Campinas, Carapicuíba, Diadema, Guarulhos, Itapetininga, Leme, Limeira, Peruíbe, Salto de Pirapora, São João da Boa Vista, São José dos Campos, Sorocaba, and Suzano. The concessionaire will also be responsible for infrastructure maintenance for 25 years, along with non-pedagogical services such as security, food, and cleaning.

The winning consortium includes engineering firms Agrimat Engenharia, CDL, CBI (Companhia Brasileira de Infraestrutura), DP Barros, and Astra Infra (formerly A100X Empreendimentos), which has experience managing schools.

Continue reading.

Brazil federal police concludes probe into Braskem salt mining disaster

Brazil’s federal police said on Friday that 20 people have been formally accused following an investigation into a sinking ground disaster related to salt mining activities in Maceio, where petrochemicals firm Braskem has been active for decades.

The police did not name the company, or those who were formally accused after concluding its investigation.

Braskem’s mines began extracting rock salt in the 1970s in the northeastern city of Maceio, but operations were halted from 2019 after authorities said it contributed to five neighborhoods sinking. Thousands of families had to be removed from the affected areas.

Over the past few years, the company has been paying billions of reais in reparations to the city and its residents.

Continue reading.

BRICS Summit: Brazil Blocks Venezuela's Partner Bid Amid Expansion

Although Brazil is the first country in the BRICS acronym, it is not the most powerful member of the group. It has a smaller economy than those of Russia, China, and India, and it also lacks nuclear weapons. But because for years BRICS remained small and exclusive, adding only South Africa, Brazil enjoyed internal influence.

That could all change as BRICS experiences a growth spurt. Four countries joined the group in January—Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates—with more in line. China has long sought to expand BRICS to boost its influence, and the group’s growing use of non-dollar currencies became more attractive to some countries in the wake of Western sanctions on Russia.

Cuba and Bolivia are reportedly on the list of 13 new BRICS partner countries announced Wednesday, as well as NATO member Turkey, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Partner status is not the same as full membership in BRICS, but it could be a doorway to it in the future.

While growing interest in BRICS accession increases the group’s clout, expansion also stands to diminish Brazil’s sway. Not only that—the addition of U.S. antagonist Iran complicated Brazil’s longtime claim that the bloc was “not against anyone,” as Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira said this week, but rather in favor of correcting inequities in the international system.

“At present, the group is torn,” Jorge Heine and Ariel González Levaggi wrote this week in Foreign Policy. “China and Russia would like to build it into an anti-Western entity, while Brazil, India, and South Africa would prefer it to take a stance closer to nonalignment.”

Continue reading.

Brazil looks to curb spending after local elections, sources say

The Brazilian government is preparing to roll out measures to curb mandatory spending after a second round of municipal elections at the end of the month, two Finance Ministry officials told Reuters.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has focused largely on restoring the country's fiscal balance with more tax revenue since he took office last year.

However, the sources say his government is now looking at spending controls to hit budget targets and stabilize gross debt below 80% of gross domestic product (GDP).

Investors and private economists have been skeptical of Lula's ability to deliver on budget promises, with interest rates rising in Brazil and the leftist president wary of belt-tightening as recent polls show his popularity under pressure.

Continue reading.

Elon Musk’s X will now comply with court demands in Brazil so it can resume operations in the country and potentially end its feud with a powerful judge over free speech, far-right accounts and misinformation.

The Brazilian Supreme Court asked the social media platform Saturday to present documents validating its new legal representative in the country.

X was shut down in Brazil in late August after it did not comply with orders from the top court related to hate speech moderation on the platform.

But in recent days, X representatives have started to publicly vocalize intentions to address the court demands, even though the firm had previously said it would not meet them.

New law aims to stimulate food production in Brazilian cities

Increased local food production, improved transportation, job creation, and enhanced food distribution to low-income families are among the potential benefits of the National Policy for Urban and Peri-urban Agriculture, signed into law by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on July 26. Experts agree that while the policy has significant potential, its success will rely on public incentives and effective coordination among federal, state, and municipal governments.

The newly passed law defines Urban and Peri-urban Agriculture (AUP in the original Portuguese acronym) as agricultural and livestock activities conducted within urban areas and their outskirts. The goals of AUP include enhancing food and nutritional security for vulnerable urban populations, creating alternative income sources and job opportunities, and supporting family farming, cooperatives, associations, and solidarity economy organizations. Additionally, the policy aims to integrate with supply programs and public procurement for schools, nurseries, hospitals, and other public institutions.

Jaqueline Ferreira, Research Director at Instituto Escolhas, outlines the sector's significant growth potential. “We’re discussing agriculture that already occurs in cities but remains largely invisible. Major cities and capitals across Brazil have such initiatives. However, because agriculture has traditionally been linked to rural areas, urban producers often lack access to public policies and support, as they are not recognized as agricultural establishments,” she explained. She noted that key challenges include accessing credit and formalizing these enterprises.

Continue reading.

IDB, Brazilian banks propose new fund for Amazon

On Thursday (Jul. 25), three Brazilian public banks—the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES), Banco do Brasil (BB), and Caixa Econômica Federal—along with the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), unveiled a new proposal to finance sustainability in the Amazon.

The plan is to establish an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) and distribute its shares before COP 30, which will take place in Belém, Brazil, in November 2025.

ETFs, which originated in the U.S. at the turn of the 1980s and 1990s, are a type of investment that have become widespread in global capital markets. The proposal suggests that trading will occur on the São Paulo Stock Exchange, also known as B3.

Continue reading.

Is Brazil an Untapped Investment Opportunity?

Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America[1]. It comprises 60% of the MSCI Latin America index,[2] and has four of the region’s five largest companies. It is the highest weighting in the BlackRock Latin American Investment Trust[3] (BRLA) and where we concentrate a significant share of our analytical resources and time. It is a source of many of the region’s richest opportunities.

However, while it is vital for the trust, in recent years, the Brazilian market has been overlooked and underappreciated by global investors. It has lost out to higher profile markets such as China, and more recently, India and is now a relatively small part of most emerging market benchmarks. It makes up just 5% of the MSCI Emerging Markets index, for example, which is dominated by global technology and communications companies such as TSMC, Samsung and Alibaba[4].

However, this also brings opportunity. Where a stock market is overlooked, it often creates mispricing which skilled active managers can capitalize on. The MSCI Brazil Index trades at just over half the valuation of the wider MSCI Emerging Markets index[5]. To take advantage of this for the BlackRock Latin American Investment Trust, our analysts frequently travel to Brazil. Having boots on the ground, allows us to evaluate a range of opportunities, finding companies where the prospects for growth may have been underappreciated by the market.

There are several reasons why Brazil deserves more attention from global investors. One of them being the advantageous geopolitical position of Brazil. With well-established diplomatic ties to both Eastern and Western nations, where the US and China is now Brazil’s two largest trading partners, the country stands out as a reliable trade ally[6]. Particularly important is the trade of its critical commodities. Its ability to trade freely with each side is likely to improve its economic position in the next few years, we believe.

Continue reading.

For Lula, Milei Has Gone From Being a Nuisance to Being a Problem

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has aspirations for regional and global leadership. Standing in Lula’s way is the fact that he cannot even get a meeting with his counterpart from neighboring Argentina, President Javier Milei.

Seven months after Milei’s inauguration, the two leaders have met only once and even then briefly, on the sidelines of the G7 meeting last month in Italy. Otherwise, they have unartfully dodged each other as they have darted around the region and the world promoting their opposing ideological views.

Lula’s global agenda is expansive. He wants Brazil to have a permanent United Nations Security Council seat. He plans for the country to take a leading role in climate change negotiations as he hosts the U.N. COP30 Climate Change Conference in Brazil next year. He has tried to insert himself as a mediator in the Ukraine conflict. And when BRICS—the political grouping that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa—moved to expand last year, Lula made sure to bring along Argentina under then-President Alberto Fernandez as one of its new members.

Milei withdrew Argentina from the BRICS expansion process as soon as he took office in December. That’s consistent with his desire to move the country away from China and closer to the United States. Besides that, he has not clearly outlined an international agenda for his country. But Milei definitely has an international agenda for himself. He has portrayed himself as an ally of Israel and Ukraine, a contrast to Latin America’s left-wing leaders who have opposed the former’s war in Gaza and mainly attempted to remain neutral on the latter’s fight against Russian aggression.

Ideologically, Milei is attempting to turn himself into a global icon for free market libertarianism, speaking at conferences in South America, the U.S. and Europe, and meeting with venture capital investors and social media stars. He uses strong rhetoric in favor of capitalism and against any form of what he views as socialism or Marxism. His relatively extreme views, which only appeal to a small minority of Argentine voters who comprise his base, get him wild cheers overseas.

Continue reading.

The Platform Proletariat: How the artificial intelligence industry profits from an unprotected digital working class in Brazil

Workers perform crucial tasks for the development of AI systems, such as data classification and content moderation, but remain invisible and poorly compensated, highlighting the disparity between the importance of their work and the recognition received.

Workers on platforms like Appen, Tellus, and OneForma receive low wages and work in precarious conditions, without benefits, and under fragile contracts, reflecting a growing problem in the digital labor market. They’re often legally unprotected, with little chance to claim labor rights due to the absence of legal representation for companies in their countries, such as Brazil.

Despite discussions around the regulation of digital work and artificial intelligence, data workers are often overlooked, exacerbating precariousness and lack of rights.

The economic crisis caused by the pandemic increased reliance on remote work in countries like Brazil, where unemployment and the need to work from home drove people to join these platforms. However, since they are completely informal, there is no data on the exact size of this new working class.

The need for organization and mutual support among workers is vital to improving their working conditions and increasing bargaining power and improving the quality of the work.

Continue reading.

After spurning China for years, Brazil reveals plan to join Belt and Road Initiative

Brazil's president revealed on Friday that his administration was putting together "a proposal to join" the Belt and Road Initiative, China's flagship infrastructure and investment project.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva shared the news during an event announcing investments by the Brazilian Development Bank to renovate a highway between Rio de Janeiro and Santos, a city 85km (53 miles) from Sao Paulo, site of the country's main port.

Describing a synergy between Chinese interests and Brazil's infrastructure gap, Lula voiced openness to accession as long as it brought tangible results.

"As China wants to discuss this Silk Road [the initiative's former name], we will have to prepare a proposal to assess 'What do we gain? what's in it for Brazil if we participate in this thing?'," he said.

Continue reading.

Flooded Brazil 'ghost town' a climate warning to world, UN advisor says

Record floods that killed over 170 people and displaced half a million in southern Brazil are a warning sign of more disasters to come throughout the Americas because of climate change, an official at the United Nations' refugee agency said on Tuesday.

Roughly 389,000 people, opens new tab in the state of Rio Grande do Sul remain displaced from their homes because of the intense rain and flooding, which local officials say was the worst disaster in the region's history. Scientists say climate change made the flooding twice as likely to happen.

Andrew Harper, special advisor on climate action to the refugee agency UNHCR, visited a flooded neighborhood in state capital Porto Alegre over the weekend and called it "a ghost town."

"It was underwater for almost 40 days. There wasn't even any rats running around. Everything had died," Harper said in an interview on Tuesday.

Continue reading.

everyone please read this and share if you can.

Brazil is going through one of the worst climatic crisis ever seen.

i live in the southernmost state, Rio Grande do Sul. we have been suffering from extreme, nonstop rainstorms for a week now. the rivers are flooding, reaching 4-6 meters above their natural level. people are being rescued by helicopters, neighborhoods are being evacuated. entire cities are slowly but surely becoming submerged in water. 60 people missing and counting. 32 deaths and counting.

and this is not new. last november also had a flood like this one. 50 dead, many material losses. it happened again this january, with thousands being left without power or water for days.

three catastrophical disasters within less than a year. three disasters only a few months apart.

this is not natural.

unsustainable agricultural practices and politics led to this. a complete disregard for nature led to this. greed led to this. always greed.

when it comes to the climate crisis, i cannot stress this enough: we need to act now if we still want to live. disasters like this are going to happen more often and they're going to be much, much worse. this flood is being considered the worst climatic catastrophe in the history of my state. i don't know how long it will take for another bigger one to happen and take its place. i just know it will be sooner than it should.

links to donate (if you can't donate, sharing already helps a lot):

link for non-brazilians (paybox)

link for brazilians

pix assufrgs

will update more links later. in the meantime, pray for us.

❗️NEW RELIABLE DONATION LINKS❗️

LINK - fundraiser by @badincolono on instagram, accepts donations in dollar and euro.

LINK - cozinhas solidárias, to feed the people affected by the floods. also accepts international donations through a paypal linked in the page.

LINK - s.o.s. chuvas, a fundraiser organized by CUFA (central única das favelas, or single central of the favelas in a rough translation). accepts international donation via paypal listed on the post.

LINK - donations to GRAD Brasil (response group to animals in disasters, in a rough translation), dedicated to rescue the animals in disasters like this one. accepts international donation via paypal listed at the bottom of the page.

please share and consider donating if you can. $5 is around R$25 for us and it already helps so much.

again, thanks so so much for sharing. i wasn't expecting to reach this many people and i couldn't be more thankful for it. thank you, truly.

Population organizes to save lost animals from the flood in Rio Grande do Sul's capital city

Volunteers work on the verge of collapse, ask for donations, and demand government support to rescue and shelter animals

The commotion with the horse rescued from a rooftop of a submerged house in the city of Canoas after four days illustrates the plight of animals affected by the floods in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. According to the state government, by the end of Wednesday afternoon (8), the Military Brigade, Civil Police and Fire Brigade had rescued almost 9,000 animals, a figure that does not include rescues made by local administrations and citizens.

Porto Alegre and its metropolitan region have two scenarios when it comes to rescuing animals: there are groups of volunteers working directly to rescue animals and try to find their owners; other groups rescue, receive the animals and mobilize to take them in and also try to find their owners. Among the many initiatives, Brasil de Fato RS presents two.

Continue reading.