If something is unfalsifiable, not only can it not be shown to be false, it also can't be shown to be true either. A "gender identity" is indistinguishable from thetans, chakras, auras or a Xian soul.
It's a purely faith-based belief.
Source: x.com
By: Steve Stewart-Williams
Published: May 30, 2024
A new paper in the journal Kyklos finds no reliable associations between people’s star signs and their happiness, health, work satisfaction, financial satisfaction, or marital happiness.
Drawing on data from 12,791 participants in the General Social Survey, the paper found that star signs explain less than 0.3% of the variance in people’s responses. To be fair, 0.3% isn’t 0%. However, the paper also found that if you randomly assign people a number from 1 to 12, those numbers “explain” just as much of the variance as the star signs. This suggests that the explained variance is really just random wobble, and that actually star signs explain nothing at all.
Needless to say, these aren’t the first findings to challenge the predictive power of astrology. There are many other examples, some as amusing as they are enlightening.
One of my favorites comes from Christian Rudder, co-founder of the dating website OKCupid. Rudder analyzed data from 500,000 users to see if their star signs predicted who they matched with. Nope! Star signs had zero effect on how compatible people were.
Another example comes from the mathematician and entrepreneur Spencer Greenberg, who compared the predictive power of zodiac signs to that of the Big 5 personality traits for 37 important life outcomes. You can read about the findings here and here, but the basic message is captured nicely in the following graph.
Here’s an excerpt from an open-access astronomy textbook, discussing various other empirical tests of astrology.
In a fine example of such a test, two statisticians examined the reenlistment records of the United States Marine Corps. We suspect you will agree that it takes a certain kind of personality not only to enlist, but also to reenlist in the Marines. If sun signs can predict strong personality traits - as astrologers claim - then those who reenlisted (with similar personalities) should have been distributed preferentially in those one or few signs that matched the personality of someone who loves being a Marine. However, the reenlisted were distributed randomly among all the signs. More sophisticated studies have also been done, involving full horoscopes calculated for thousands of individuals. The results of all these studies are also negative: none of the systems of astrology has been shown to be at all effective in connecting astrological aspects to personality, success, or finding the right person to love. Other tests show that it hardly seems to matter what a horoscope interpretation says, as long as it is vague enough, and as long as each subject feels it was prepared personally just for him or her. The French statistician Michel Gauquelin, for example, sent the horoscope interpretation for one of the worst mass murderers in history to 150 people, but told each recipient that it was a “reading” prepared exclusively for him or her. Ninety-four percent of the readers said they recognized themselves in the interpretation of the mass murderer’s horoscope. Geoffrey Dean, an Australian researcher, reversed the astrological readings of 22 subjects, substituting phrases that were the opposite of what the horoscope actually said. Yet, his subjects said that the resulting readings applied to them just as often (95%) as the people to whom the original phrases were given.
This video shows the magician and skeptic James Randi conducting a similar experiment.
None of these findings should be surprising, of course; there’s no reason at all to think that star signs would predict anything other than people’s answer to the question “What’s your star sign?” Still, it’s good to have decent data to help persuade the undecided that astrology is simply bunk.
And if they’re still not persuaded, perhaps xkdc’s economic argument against astrology and other pseudoscientific beliefs will finally tip the scales…
==
Anyone who thinks astrology is real doesn't understand even the most basic things about how the universe works. Their understanding is equivalent to believing that Earth is the center of the universe, and the sun orbits it.
By: Katherine Donlevy
Published: Apr 10, 2024
The killer mom who butchered her boyfriend and pushed her kids out of a moving car before crashing into a tree Monday was a once-prolific astrologer who was terrified of the impending “apocalypse” she believed the eclipse would incite, according to a report.
Danielle Johnson — a popular astrology influencer who went by the name Danielle Ayoka online — warned her 106,000 followers to “wake up” and to “pick a side” in the days before she carried out the twisted murder-suicide that spanned several Los Angeles neighborhoods, law enforcement sources told the Los Angeles Times Wednesday.
“WAKE UP WAKE UP THE APOCALYPSE IS HERE. EVERYONE WHO HAS EARS LISTEN. YOUR TIME TO CHOOSE WHAT YOU BELIEVE IS NOW,” Johnson wrote last week in a tweet that was viewed 600,000 times.
“IF YOU BELIEVE A NEW WORLD IS POSSIBLE FOR THE PEOPLE RT NOW. THERE IS POWER IN CHOICE. THERE IS POWER IN CHOICE!!!! REPOST TO MAKE THE CHOICE FOR THE COLLECTIVE.”
Three days later — hours before the eclipse was expected to occur over California — Johnson murdered two of her loved ones and tried to kill her oldest daughter before killing herself in an early-morning massacre, according to police.
Neither the self-described “divine healer” nor her boyfriend had any documented history of domestic violence or calls to police, leading investigators to suspect that the sprawling bloodbath was influenced by Johnson’s crazed end-of-world paranoia, sources told the LA Times.
Johnson urged her followers to protect themselves from the eclipse, which she dubbed the “epitome of spiritual warfare.”
[ Jaelen Allen Chaney was found stabbed to death in the Woodland Hills apartment he shared with his girlfriend and her two kids. ]
Johnson — who offered self-help and healing sessions online for just $2.99 — spewed antisemitic posts and conspiracy theories about natural phenomenon on X.
She also likened the New Jersey earthquake to white supremacy and accused the government and media of trying to cover up what she feared was the impending apocalypse.
“THESE ARE ALL THE WAYS THEY HAVE BEEN PROGRAMMING US WITH LIES!!! LOOK AT THESE TO UNDERSTAND THE AGENDA THIS IS REAL THIS IS SPIRITUAL WARFARE,” she wrote.
WAKE UP WAKE UP THE APOCALYPSE IS HERE. EVERYONE WHO HAS EARS LISTEN. YOUR TIME TO CHOOSE WHAT YOU BELIEVE IS NOW. IF YOU BELIEVE A NEW WORLD IS POSSIBLE FOR THE PEOPLE RT NOW. THERE IS POWER IN CHOICE. THERE IS POWER IN CHOICE!!!! REPOST TO MAKE THE CHOICE FOR THE COLLECTIVE pic.twitter.com/NMyuLkBj5l— Ayoka (@MysticxLipstick) April 5, 2024
The healer — who also peddled R&B songs — was once a media darling who was profiled by Refinery 29 and the Fader, both of which applauded her clairvoyant talents.
In 2016, Refinery 29 said Johnson had “a brilliant gift for calling out the nonsense of any sun sign in need of real truths.”
Johnson was apparently last active on social media Sunday afternoon — roughly 12 hours before police say she stabbed her 29-year-old boyfriend, Jaelen Allen Chaney, in the heart while he was on the couch of their luxury Woodland Hills apartment.
[ Johnson was driving “in excess” of 100 mph when she smashed into a tree. ]
Evidence suggests she tried to drag the body out of the unit, but gave up and left his body in the kitchen, sources told the LA Times.
She then piled her two daughters in her Porsche Cayenne, which she drove through a security gate as she peeled away from the scene.
Around 5 a.m., Johnson threw her 9-year-old daughter out of the car and onto a freeway while the girl clutched her 8-month-old baby sister, authorities said. The older child survived the fall and escaped traffic, but the infant was found dead at the scene.
[ Johnson allegedly threw her kids out of the car onto the highway, killing the infant, between killing Chaney and herself. ]
Johnson’s body was found several miles away at 5:30 a.m. inside a crushed car that had been driven into a tree at speeds topping 100 mph.
It was another two hours before police were called to the apartment where the violence broke out and pieced together the horrifying incident.
Investigators found a trail of bloody footprints leading through the open door of the apartment, which was also littered with black feathers and tarot cards, sources said.
Police initially said Chaney and Johnson were engaged in a verbal altercation when Johnson picked up the knife around 3:40 a.m.
The partial eclipse was visible across California about seven hours later.
It is believed the 9-year-old child — the sole survivor of the horrifying attack — had witnessed her mother slay Chaney.
Johnson killed herself more than 30 miles south of the site of Chaney’s murder.
Investigators are also still working to determine if the baby had died before being thrown from the car.
--
==
The world is better off without her. Mourn only for the man and the baby she killed, and the child who has lost her both her father and sister.
Here's a tip for those planning a murder-suicide: do the suicide bit first.
Pseudoscientific bullshit is not harmless. Being utterly convinced by false beliefs has consequences.
Source: New York Post
"Narcissism was surprisingly the strongest predictor, and intelligence showed a negative relationship with belief in astrology."
Abstract Belief in astrology is on the rise, although the reasons behind this are unclear. We tested whether individual personality traits could predict such epistemically unfounded beliefs. Data was collected for 264 participants through an anonymous online survey shared on social media. The survey consisted of four instruments: Belief in Astrology (BAI), the Big Five personality traits (IPIP-30), narcissism (SD3) and intelligence (ICAR16-R3D). Data analysis was done with multiple linear regression. Narcissism was surprisingly the strongest predictor, and intelligence showed a negative relationship with belief in astrology. Overall, our novel results suggest that something as innocent as astrology could both attract and possibly reinforce individual differences.
1. Introduction
Astrology is increasing in popularity (Pew Research Center, 2018), despite the lack of scientific support (Allum, 2011). It is not clear why this ancient practice of studying positions and movements of celestial bodies, with the conviction that they influence human behaviour, is going through a revival. However, previous literature suggests that when societies or individuals are under stress or threat, people are more likely to turn to astrology and other epistemically unfounded beliefs (Grech, 2017; Keinan, 1994). Previous research further shows a relationship between personal life crises and belief in astrology (Lillqvist & Lindeman, 1998). Currently we are surrounded by stressors such as climate change and, recently, the Covid-19 pandemic, which makes the topic pertinent. Though embracing astrology might seem innocent, it is nonetheless possible that it facilitates uncritical thinking and favours biases. Further, belief in astrology correlates with belief in multiple other pseudosciences as well as with belief in conspiracy theories (Bensley et al., 2020) which indicates that it might not be all that harmless.
The present study set out to explore individual differences regarding belief in astrology. Although there is no consensus concerning what makes some people more susceptible to pseudoscientific beliefs than others, commonly mentioned factors are personality traits and cognitive biases (Bensley et al., 2020; Bouvet & Bonnefon, 2015; Pennycook et al., 2015).
1.1. Big Five, narcissism, intelligence
The most accepted theory regarding individual differences is the five factors of personality traits (also known as Big Five); openness, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism (Costa & McCrae, 1992). Openness is usually positively associated with belief in the paranormal (Chauvin & Mullet, 2021), as well as apophenia (Blain et al., 2020). Conscientiousness may be the personality trait with the least connection to pseudoscientific beliefs, and weak negative correlations have been reported (Chauvin & Mullet, 2021). Extraversion too has been shown to be related to belief in the paranormal (Thalbourne & Haraldsson, 1980), whereas agreeableness in earlier studies has correlated both positively (Čavojová et al., 2020) and negatively (Swami et al., 2009) with belief in conspiracy theories. At last, neuroticism has been found to correlate positively with paranormal beliefs (Thalbourne & Haraldsson, 1980).
Though the dimensions of the Big Five are valuable when studying individual differences, there are additional so-called dark traits (cf. Kajonius et al., 2015). One dark trait in particular seems relevant in relation to belief in astrology, namely narcissism, due to the self-focused perspective that may be at the core of both phenomena.
In addition to personality traits, intelligence is commonly used in studies of individual differences. Particularly openness has proved to correlate with intelligence measures (DeYoung et al., 2014). In general, intelligence is thought to be negatively related to the acceptance of pseudoscience and paranormal beliefs (Musch & Ehrenberg, 2002), as well as with apophenia (Blain et al., 2020).
1.2. Present study
The present study aimed to investigate whether personality traits and intelligence can predict belief in astrology. To the best of our knowledge, no earlier studies have been conducted on narcissism and intelligence regarding belief in astrology.
[...]
4. Discussion
The present study aim was to investigate how individual differences relate to belief in astrology. The main result showed that the higher the narcissism, perhaps surprisingly, the higher the belief in astrology. The positive association is possibly due to the self-centred worldview uniting them, though this must be examined in further research. Furthermore, cultural aspects of millennials may emphasize the uniqueness of individuals which might lead to a more egocentric view of the world, and thus relate to narcissistic traits. Further, since astrological predictions and horoscopes tend to be positively framed, this reinforces grandiose feelings and thus might appeal even more to narcissists. Note that narcissistic traits correlated with the belief that astrology is supported by science (Table 1), which leads to a speculation that narcissists may generally be more fact resistant.
Other interesting findings was that the higher the level of intelligence, the lower the belief in astrology (see Musch & Ehrenberg, 2002), as well as that agreeable people tend to report believing in astrology more. Seeing how most personality predictors were small in magnitude, this leaves room for many other variables influencing belief in astrology. Speculatively, additional predictors could be cohort-effects, educational levels, occupations, and others.
4.1. Limitations
As with most survey designs, social desirability bias, common method bias, and the use of self-report may be an issue. Another limitation was that we had no control over who participated in the study, thus introducing a potential selection bias. In the same vein, we do not know how much participants know about astrology. Also, since the vast majority were younger women recruited through social media the sample is not generalisable to a broader population. Another possible concern in the present study is the use of short versions of the scales, especially Openness which showed a low internal consistency and did not show expected effects in the regression model. One indication of this is that openness and intelligence did not correlate significantly in the present study (see Table 1). Lastly, most of the reported effects were acknowledgeable small (Gignac & Szodorai, 2016), which leaves room for both type I-errors as well as for the influence of other variables, outside individual differences.
5. Conclusion
Our aim with the present study was to contribute to an increased understanding of individual differences and unfounded epistemic beliefs, such as belief in astrology. The results showed interestingly that narcissism was the strongest predictor of belief in astrology: Even the stars think I am superior.
"I don't differentiate much, except in degree, between people who believe in religion from those who believe in astrology, magic or the supernatural."
-- Andy Rooney
By: Douglas Heingartner
Published: Nov 20, 2021
A new study has found that narcissism is the strongest predictor of people who believe in astrology, and that the IQ levels of believers tend to be lower.
The study — “Even the stars think that I am superior: Personality, intelligence and belief in astrology” — was published on November 20 in the journal Personality and Individual Differences.
It was conducted by a team of researchers at Lund University in Sweden.
Why do people who believe in astrology choose to believe?
As the study points out, astrology is becoming more and more popular.
According to a 2018 Pew Research poll, about 29% of American adults now believe in astrology, and women are more likely to believe in it than men.
Scientists do not know why astrology is undergoing what these researchers call a “revival.”
But they do point out that past research has found people are more likely to embrace astrology and other scientifically questionable beliefs when they are under stress.
Prior studies, for example, have found a link between personal turmoil and a belief in astrology.
The authors suggest that current “stressors” which might explain the increasing popularity of astrology include climate change and the Covid-19 pandemic.
And understanding why people believe in astrology matters. Although astrology in itself may seem harmless, it also correlates with belief in other pseudosciences and conspiracy theories.
So the researchers wanted to find out whether individual personality traits might play a role in understanding why people who believe in astrology hold that belief.
“To the best of our knowledge,” they write, “no earlier studies have been conducted on narcissism and intelligence regarding belief in astrology.”
Known links between Big Five personality traits and belief in pseudoscience
Past research has found that that the Big Five traits of Openness, Extroversion, and Neuroticism are (weakly) positively correlated with belief in the paranormal.
Conscientiousness, on the other hand, is the personality trait least connected to pseudoscientific beliefs. Evidence is mixed on the trait of Agreeableness.
The researchers also wanted to investigate the links between astrology and narcissism, “due to the self-focused perspective” at the core of both.
Finally, the researchers wanted to measure the participants’ IQ levels, as intelligence has been found to correlate negatively with belief in pseudoscience and the paranormal. Intelligence also correlates negatively with apophenia, which is the tendency to see connections or patterns between unrelated things.
Measuring belief in astrology and the Big Five
To find out more about the correlations between individual personalities and belief in astrology, the researchers assessed the personalities, IQ levels, and astrology beliefs of 264 English-speaking participants who were recruited via Facebook.
Most of the participants (87%) were women, and their age range was 25 – 34.
To measure the subjects’ belief in astrology, the researchers had them complete a shortened eight-item version of a psychometric assessment tool called the Belief in Astrology Inventory.
Participants were asked to rate the truth, on a scale of 1 to 5, of statements such as “Horoscopes predict a person’s future” or “The way I relate to other people depends on my zodiac sign.”
Subjects also completed several personality assessments. One was a standard 30-item personality test.
Another was a tool specifically designed to measure narcissism. It asked participants to respond to statements such as “People see me as a natural leader” or “I get bored hanging around with ordinary people.”
Finally, the participants completed a brief intelligence test.
The researchers also collected information on the subjects’ age and gender.
Results: narcissism was the strongest predictor of belief in astrology, and IQ was negatively linked to this belief
In terms of personality traits, narcissism was the strongest predictor of “Belief in Astrology” (β = 0.29).
The traits of Openness, Conscientiousness, and Neuroticism showed no correlations, while Agreeableness and Extraversion showed small positive correlations.
Intelligence had a small but significant negative effect: the higher the IQ, the lower the likelihood of believing in astrology.
The researchers also found that female participants and older participants showed slightly higher rates of believing in astrology.
What might explain these results? Both narcissism and astrology are all about “me”
As the researchers write, the link between astrology and narcissism “is possibly due to the self-centered worldview uniting them.”
They also suggest that the positive framing of astrological predictions and horoscopes might reinforce grandiose feelings, “and thus might appeal even more to narcissists.”
Interestingly, the study found that narcissistic traits also correlated with the belief that astrology is supported by science, which suggests the possibility that “narcissists may generally be more fact resistant.”
Conclusion and future directions
For future research, the team proposes looking at other possible factors that might explain these links, such as education levels and occupations.
“Our aim with the present study,” they write, “was to contribute to an increased understanding of individual differences and unfounded epistemic beliefs, such as belief in astrology.”
“The results showed, interestingly, that narcissism was the strongest predictor of belief in astrology.”
--
Study: “Even the stars think that I am superior: Personality, intelligence and belief in astrology” Published in: Personality and Individual Differences Authors: Ida Andersson, Julia Persson, and Petri Kajonius Publication date: November 20, 2021 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paid.2021.111389
==
Source: psychnewsdaily.com
Grown adults, who have kids and are allowed to vote and drive, wrote these. Unironically.
It’s one thing to check your horoscope in the paper for fun. It’s another to plan - and judge - your child around the arbitrary position of astronomical objects when viewed from one minor planet on the outskirts of an unremarkable galaxy, hundreds or thousands of years after the light left the source. Or choose or alter your relationships based on the same idiotic notion.
What's your opinion on astrology?
Complete nonsense. For the same reasons we know prayer doesn't work: because nobody can define how it works, and because when we test it, the results are no better than random chance.
Otherwise, whichever is the "true" religion would exhibit greater professional and academic success, better health, longer life, etc, etc. The same for the astrologists who get it "right."
That is, it isn't just that it's not been demonstrated to work, it's been demonstrated not to work.
The interesting thing about astrology isn't the astrology itself, it's the human psychology that powers it. Pattern seeking, magical thinking, confirmation bias, appeals to mystery and ignorance, desire for control - that something is in control, and that you can take control by aligning your activities with the "predictions" for the day.
The Forer experiment is particularly interesting. James Randi conducts the same experiment in the video below. It's been consistently replicated.
- https://science.howstuffworks.com/life/inside-the-mind/human-brain/forer-effect.htm
- http://skepdic.com/forer.html
Part of the reason it's so interesting is how applicable the technique is, not just in the nonsense of astrology, but also in advertising, social media, and of course, religion and politics, and particularly identity politics.
I've got an astrology tag, but this post in particular probably covers it:
Of course, when you look at what is actually required for it to function, it's pretty much a tacit form of geocentric flat Earth.
“It is of course the height of conceit to believe that there is a divine being who takes a personal and immediate interest in your doings (only astrology comes close to this illusion, with its vulgar assertion that the heavens are arranged for our convenience).”
-- Christopher Hitchens [“Minority Report,” Nation, 7/25/94–8/01/94]
Source: twitter.com
Now you're ready for anything the year brings.
Source: facebook.com
Stories of literal magic belong in creative writing class.
What's your view on zodiac signs? I recently discussed it with a girl who was pretty much into it and talked about waves and magnetism (which apparently can't touch you while in the womb for whatever reason) and totally thought the stars define our lives. She was also pretty sure about karma saving her once and didn't want to hear anything about coincidence and that the sun is the only star affecting her life with a sunburn at least.
Spoiler alert... it’s fiction, which becomes immediately apparent when you have the most basic understanding of how stars work, how light works and how fast it travels, how the galaxy works, and when you realize you’re not the center of it.
Clearly, she doesn’t if she’s citing “waves” and ‘magnetism.” Which somehow doesn’t affect all the metal shit we’ve built, like the planes flying in the sky or the satellites in orbit. She quite possibly thinks that astrology and astronomy are somehow related.
The correct response is to ask her specifically how “magnetism” and “waves” - and particularly what she even means by a “wave” - work in this mechanism, and specifically, how it affects biology and cognitive neuroscience which influences personality.
Every time she gives you a (non-)answer, ask how her non-answer works, and how she can demonstrate this information.
And, as usual, what would convince her that it isn’t real. (The answer is “nothing.)
It’s powered entirely by confirmation bias, been studied extensively and is quite well understood:
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnum_effect
- https://science.howstuffworks.com/life/inside-the-mind/human-brain/forer-effect.htm
- http://skepdic.com/forer.html
- https://www.elitedaily.com/life/culture/astrology-assholes
- https://gizmodo.com/astrology-is-still-bullshit-and-the-universe-doesnt-car-5733709
- https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/is-astrology-real-heres-what-science-says/
By the way, the constellations aren’t evenly spaced, and gravity and changes to the Earth’s axial tilt mean that her sign is probably not even what she thinks it is.
Back in 2011, as TIME reported, astronomers from the Minnesota Planetarium Society found that because of the moon’s gravitational pull on Earth, the alignment of the stars has shifted. As Earth’s axis changed direction, the disruption resulted in a big change for astrology believers and horoscope readers: the astrological signs of the western zodiac moved back approximately a month in the calendar. Following that line of thinking, people who had been reading the Virgo horoscopes might actually be Leo’s. Plus, there was more — a whole new astrological sign. Anyone born between Nov. 29 and Dec. 17 was now paired up with a new sign, Ophiuchus.
A few months ago, NASA released a statement aimed at kids, updating the birthday-constellation alignment, doing so based on the stars’ actual placement in space. According to the BBC, the updated calendar meant that a whopping 86% of the world now had a different star sign.
I bet she used the word “quantum”. Amirite?
Amen.
Source: facebook.com