Do you think it's possible there's a planet with multiple stable sentient species who interact? Or would such a situation inevitably end up with one getting wiped out or the two hybridizing
Well, they could only hybridize if they were closely related, like humans and Neanderthals. And IIRC there's some evidence that humans and Neanderthals/Denisovans probably weren't all that interfertile to begin with, with most coding Neanderthal alleles getting weeded out of our genome.
I think it would be very difficult for two sentient species that shared overlapping niches to survive. H. sapiens and Neanderthals were both smart, seem to have both had language and culture, and had similar levels of technological sophistication, but the latter had a much lower population and so couldn't really compete when their cousins invaded their territory. And maybe some of this is a function of the wider human clade's tendency to engage in warfare and ecologically disruptive hunting--there's a big wave of megafauna extinction that seems to have followed the expansion of human populations all over the globe--but I'm not sure how many species of big-brained tool-users any niche could support.
But I do think that species with very different niches could coexist peacefully, at least long enough to work out that species in other niches were sentient, and to develop the ethical frameworks necessary for coexistence. If there were superintelligent squid, they wouldn't ever compete directly with humans for habitat (though we might have eaten a fair few by accident). We have also managed (just!) not to render extinct cetaceans, which are fairly intelligent, or our close cousins the chimpanzee. I could also imagine a science fictional scenario where two intelligent species were in some kind of important symbiotic or commensalist relationship that would stabilize their coexistence.
I think the other tricky thing though would be timing. It took a long time for the genus Homo to develop intelligence. AFAICT the australopithecines were closer to chimpanzees in terms of intelligence than they were to us; H. erectus was a lot smarter, but probably didn't have language; it's not until 700,000 to 200,000 years ago you get human species that are more fully developed in terms of their intelligence, and that feels like a super narrow window in terms of evolution for another intelligence species to also emerge. Because once you do get intelligent tool-users who spread over most of the globe, they seem likely to me to start to modify their environment in profound ways, like we have. So if another intelligent species doesn't already exist, the circumstances in which it is likely to arise after one species comes to prominence are going to be very different--more of an uplift scenario, maybe. Like I think if we discovered a group of chimpanzees with rudimentary language tomorrow, we would do our best not to fuck with them, but we would inevitably have some kind of impact on their existence for better or worse, right?
Maybe your best bet for multiple sentient species would be to have a reason that the first species (singular or plural) that arose didn't come to dominate the entire planet--they were aquatic, and so never mastered fire; or they were otherwise highly restricted in the biomes they could inhabit; or they were small in number like the Neanderthals, but could retreat to refugia in mountains and forests rather than be wiped out; or they were a diverse clade like early humans, but they also spread out very rapidly, and were subsequently isolated by climate conditions. Like, imagine Denisovans (who were already in Asia) had crossed the Bering Strait land bridge to the Americas, and then sea levels rose cutting them off until the Age of Discovery. If you had a planet that didn't effectively have a two supercontinents like Earth, you might have many more opportunities for related-but-geographically-divided species to develop (though that doesn't avoid the problem of what happens when they meet each other and start competing then).
(Epistemic status: I would like to close all these wikipedia tabs someday)
What's the deal with recent-out-of-Africa anyway? You have the Chimp-Human split and developing bipedalism and all that going on in Sub-Saharan (except when there isn't a sahara?) Africa.
Then (things seem to get very murky and contested for a while here) you get H. erectus spreading across Eurasia, even reaching Britain by 560 kya.
Around 300 kya you get the LCA of H. sapiens and H. neanderthalensis (notwithstanding later interbreeding), who may have lived in SSA or possibly the Mediterranean.
In any case, you end up with a population of H. sapiens in East Africa giving rise to all extant humans. We see H. sapiens bones sporadically outside of Africa from 200 or so kya but no lasting settlement until a population crosses the Bab-el-Mandeb around 70 kya and becomes ancestral to everybody outside of Africa.
So depending on where the sapiens/neanderthalensis split happened, there were 2 or 3 big out of Africas and a bunch of smaller ones.
Is Africa just a good place to evolve humans? I suppose the only alternative is the bottom half of Eurasia.
There's the Saharan Pump theory going on. And once you're out the other side of the desert, minimum temperatures get fairly cold sometimes unless you have invented some kind of clothing (but maybe fur blankets are easier to make).
Then there's extinction vortices, which maybe explain a lot. An expansion out of Africa has to maintain enough of a gene pool or else they become too inbred to survive. Or you can have kids with someone from another species and suffer strong outbreeding depression. Isolation also contributes to a small effective population size, so "refugia in mountains and forests" are probably not long-term viable. Hell, maybe Neanderthals were just always skirting the edge of the minimum population size ( https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6880983/ )
Idk exactly where I'm going with this but it seems differently arranged continents/climate would produce quite different results to what we do in fact see (haplogroup thunderdome in SSA and radiation elsewhere).
Also the thorny question of what if there were extant groups less related to each other than any two H. sapiens living today are but more than we are to neanderthals.
I guess your fundamental question is "why did modern humans originate in East Africa rather than one of the other regions to which H. erectus, or another human species, had migrated?" I can only guess that it's partly chance. But all the most interesting species were already present in Africa, and human communities outside Africa probably were more precarious and thus more likely to go extinct, especially as the climate fluctuated in northern Asia and Europe (plus the extinction vortices thing you point to).
In a way, it's hard to imagine an arrangement of continents more conducive to modern humans not appearing in Africa than the big Afro-Eurasian supercontinent. Like, I gotta figure India and parts of east Asia are going to be relatively clement throughout the Pleistocene, and there's no reason on paper why H. erectus couldn't have gotten settled there and evolved into modern humans. But idk, maybe our ancestors were especially tasty to tigers or something.
This book by a South African ecologist makes an elaborate argument that Late Cenozoic Africa really was uniquely suited, for geographical and ecological reasons, for the tool-using-scavenger-then-hunter niche that humans seventually occupied:
(from chapter 19) The uplift of Africa and subsequent rifting and volcanics... produced unusually low rainfall for the tropics coupled with soils that remained comparatively fertile, at least for nourishing large herbivores. Had Africa been mostly low-lying, it would have become largely a degraded semi-desert like most of Australia. Had the uplift taken place in the west, tropical regions of Africa would have been as moist and infertile as South America, thronged with huge mega-grazers rather than a rich assemblage of medium–large ruminants. Tropical Asia is mostly too low and wet for savanna vegetation to be extensive and lacks an abundant grazing fauna.
The crucial feature of Africa’s climates is the wide prevalence of seasonal dryness. This underlies the spatial predominance of savanna vegetation, with grasses coexisting between and beneath trees. Ruminants radiating during the Miocene adapted especially to digest the fibrous C4 grasses during the dry seasons. This capability enabled these grazers to attain vastly greater abundances than browsers... A diet of dry grass made the grazers dependent on access to surface water, concentrating their numbers within reach of perennial water sources during the dry months. This opened opportunities for savanna-dwelling ape-men to incorporate animal flesh into their diet...
South America’s large grazers were mostly too big to be exploited sustainably for flesh in tropical climates where meat soon rots. Australia and tropical Asia were both deficient in grazers. Nowhere outside of Africa were large herbivores sufficiently abundant to nurture the seasonal dependency of comparatively puny primates on scrounging from carnivore kills or running down their own prey.
The size structure of Africa’s large herbivore fauna was also crucially important. Carcasses of small antelope get consumed completely by their mammalian carnivore killers. Those of megaherbivores that have died remain attended by carnivores until the meat turns putrid... The unique feature of Africa’s large herbivore fauna is the abundance and diversity of medium–large ruminants, weighing 50–500 kg, which was established by 5 Ma... promoted specifically by the prevalence of dry/eutrophic savannas, or ‘sweetveld’... Tools developed by hominins to extract and pulverise tough plants became deployed to break open the bones and scrape flesh off the ungulate carcasses abandoned by the big fierce killers, exploiting a time window when large carnivores were mostly inactive.
Of course there must be a hefty dose of hindsight bias into any consideration of the sort, but it makes sense to me. Admittedly this is mostly about the earlier phase of human evolution, before the first Out of Africa, but the same conditions might still have driven more cognitive and technical development afterward.
Ooh, interesting hypothesis!
A few other possibilities that occurred to me:
1) During the ice ages much of the Eurasian landmass was chilly steppe and steppe-tundra. In terms of land area that was nice for very low-tech humans and proto-humans (ancestrally warm-weather creatures that lacked natural insulation) Africa might have had more of it for much of the Pleistocene. The warmer climate of Africa would have meant more photosynthetic productivity and hence more available food. Africa might have had the majority of humanity for much of the Pleistocene. Even if Eurasia had more humans total, Africa plausibly had denser human populations at least during the colder eras, and denser populations would have meant easier diffusion of genes and ideas, so plausibly faster evolution, faster accumulation of cultural complexity, and faster technological innovation.
2) Per Bergman's rule, in a colder climate animal biomass tends to be more concentrated into smaller numbers of big animals. Plant foods edible to humans also tend to be less abundant in cold climates (IIRC, the traditional Inuit diet is pretty close to pure carnivory). Edible to humans biomass in the cold ice age Eurasian steppes might have been heavily concentrated in big animals. To exploit the main edible to humans biomass reservoir of the ice age Eurasian cold steppe, humans might have had to learn how to efficiently take down animals substantially bigger and stronger than themselves, many of which moved in herds. This might have been quite challenging and taken a long time to figure out. Before humans learned how to be efficient big game hunters the Eurasian cold steppe's heavy concentration of theoretically edible to humans biomass into big, powerful, formidable herbivores might have seriously constrained the population of ice age Eurasian humanity. By contrast, Africa, being warmer, would have had more fruit, tubers, medium-sized animals, small animals, etc. that humans could eat with less effort and less danger. African humanity being more numerous would plausibly have meant African humanity would have accumulated cultural complexity and useful technologies and beneficial mutations faster.
3) Homo sapiens evolving in Africa might have been downstream of Homo erectus evolving in Africa. The Homo erectus out-of-Africa dispersal would have been a genetic bottleneck for Eurasian Homo erectus, i.e. Eurasian Homo erectus would have had less genetic diversity than African Homo erectus. More genetically diverse African Homo erectus might have evolved faster because more genetic diversity meant more variation for natural selection to act on.