This is more or less a speculation, not a theory.
I have read some pretty decent post act 3 Arcane fanfics, yet one thing always bothers me a little bit about them. It is an obvious thing that Viktor will return to Zaun at some point, like this is inevitable. The same goes to his falling out with Jayce. Many people have created some cool scenarios on how it will happen, and i appreciate every single one of them.
With that said, i really cannot imagine Viktor getting banished as an event that starts it all. For a simple reason.
I don't think Viktor would have been bitter about it.
With the way he acts in the last episode of season 1, i believe that he'd think it was deserved. The thing he could be charged for would be an illegal experimentation and the manslaughter of Sky Young. Things he feels so guilty about he tried to off himself. He has very little time left, and if the trial is a necessary procedure, he'd probably accept it. Would he be upset? Of course, but i don't think he would even try to put an effort to avoid it, once people find out. And at the peak of panic in Piltover after Jinx's attack, the whatever the hell is left off the council would try to ensure that there is still at least a renmant of government control. Just like in act 1, that was literally the reason why Enforcers were trying to arrest 4 kids.
If anything, i think it would be Jayce who'd be the most desperate in this situation. "He'd be mad at Viktor for killing an innocent person" he literally did the same thing (if you think about it, Jayce have killed so much more people besides that kid, we just don't discuss it because in the show they are presented as scary monsters, not human beings that got drugged the hell up and now have their entire ripcage obligarated. But y'know, that's the point of this scene). "What about Viktor's illegal experimentation?" What Jayce did with Vi was also kinda illegal? I mean, he is a councilor, he can do whatever the fuck he wants ig, but before hand it was clear that other councilors would not want that to happen.
I imagine that Jayce would do anything in his power to cancel this trial. Viktor is his best friend, person who he has such a close bond to. And while what he did was wrong, he isn't much better. Yet it is Viktor, his dying friend, who is punished.
I can see Viktor actually being like: it's okay Jayce, it needs to happen, i will be okay (he's lying but trying).
So yeah i don't think that Viktor being banished to Zaun would be a death blow to their relationship.
Buuuuut you know what would probably make more sense (at least to me :3)?
Viktor's punishment being working on hextech weapons against Zaun.
Think about it. Jayce in an act of desperation convinces other councilors that as a co-founder of Hextech Viktor would be a viable asset in designing weapons that would "protect" Piltover against Zaun.
Well wouldn't that make Viktor absolutely fucking furious. Viktor may have ****kinda**** accepted his death but making him work AGAINST the city he spend his entire life wishing to improve and protect? Over his dead body, he'd rather be eaten alive by rats in Undercity alleys than do such a thing.
It works for me much better because it keeps Jayce's character much more consistent. Like, it's understandable why would he do it (he doesn't want his friend to die) but also highlights his change in priorities after season 1. Like, he told Silco that Undercity doesn't stand a chance against Piltover, and well, one rocket proved hin wrong. Now there are dead people in Piltover. I think he'd be more radical, more bold, maybe even less forgiving and 100% stressed af.
Does he want to keep Viktor safe? Yes. But does he find building weapons is now necessary when they are at war? Also yes. And considering the "I'M from the Undercity" scene he also tends to forget that Viktor is not, in fact, Piltovan, that as much as he loves Jayce, he does not associate with Piltover society. He is from Zaun, it is an important part of his indentity. Something that Jayce keeps neglecting.
It also doesn't change the fact that he still feels guilty over the death of that ONE child. Not the countless men in chemtanks, that are as much victims of Undercity's terrible state as Viktor is really. I think that when he'd make a decisions "a necessary decisions to keep them saved" he'd think about them, scary, crazy monsters with blades. Not that one kid. Kid feels so much more personal, people who attack them-not.
I'm not saying that is how the conflict in season 2 will look like, nuh-uh, it's just me making some fanfiction prompts lmao.
Anything could happened since them. Viktor trying to sabotage their work which would end up in an explosive and dramatic break up once Jayce finds out? Yep, i can see that. Add some fire and leave Viktor crying on concrete floor, now we have some nice parallels. But i can also see Viktor fucking off right there and there, or other stuff i dunno.
So yeah i have fanfic ideas.