Most of the credit for this realization goes to pipuhattar but it just had to be shared
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Can you imagine how stoked Vetinari must have been when he realized that not only does he have Sam Vimes on his side, but he has John Keel. He, by almost coincidence (and a whole lot of cleverness. i mean seriously even with the weirdness of the Disc who could GUESS it had been Vimes travelled back in time?!) finds this out and he is so fired up by this. And like he even SUSPECTED even before the events of Night Watch but then it all comes together and I can just IMAGINE his smugness.
‘Yes. I literally have the world’s most bloody-minded and incorruptible copper on my side. Your move, world.’
That’s not even bringing up the roundaboutness of Vimes becoming Vimes. Like, in Feet of Clay, Drumknott says to Vetinari that ‘the thought occurs that if the Commander did not exist, you would have to invent him.’ and his response is, ‘You know, I rather think I did.’
And it turns out that while he may have some of the credit, the process was LITERALLY kickstarted by Vimes himself. And its obvious from Guards! Guards! that making the Watch what it later became wasn’t always the plan, but he later sees himself as steering Vimes’ natural stubbornness into the same mold as Keel. When in fact it was Vimes/Keel who prompted that decision in the first place.
Gosh, this is amazing.
I don't think it's obvious from Guards! Guards! at all? We don't know that Vetinari really did think what he was saying out loud and that he wasn't all "oh my gosh is this it??? is this it??? finally??? is this finally gonna work???" when Carrot arrived and started stirring up shit. We don't know that he didn't purposefully transfer Vimes (or pull strings so he'd be transferred) to the position where he'd had just enough authority and independence to develop into what he did develop into earlier. We know that the Watch had been cut in size ridiculously between the events of Night Watch and Guards! Guards! but Vimes stayed. We don't know Vetinari did not arrange that keeping his plan for Vimes in mind.
We do know that in Men at Arms he was very purposefully pushing Vimes towards where he envisioned his place, but underestimated Vimes' Lawfulness and how much symbols mattered to him.
We do know that in Jingo he basically personally and singlehandedly arranged the most bright spot in Vimes' carreer until then: arresting the Patrician. He basically forced Vimes to arrest him, despite Vimes being stuck on the traditions of Ankh-Morpork which said he was untouchable.
Yeah, I think Vetinari has been planning this all along.