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I'm a not math nerd but I'm a history nerd lol

What percentage did you use with the Velaryons? Because Corlys has enough Targaryen blood for a bastard son of his to get a dragon.

And you're telling me that Jocelyn Baratheon (Rhaenys' mother) is half Velaryon?

(Aemon Targaryen set the precedent for Rhaenyra when he fucked her aunt lol)

Hehe all nerds are welcome! This ask is in reference to this post here

I'll answer your question about Aemon and Jocelyn first: You're totally right! Aemon's parents, Jaehaerys I and Alysanne, are half-siblings of Jocelyn. They have different fathers, but the same mother, Alyssa Velaryon. This also means that Corlys and Rhaenys are related: They share a great-grandfather, Aethan Velaryon!

As for the Velaryons having Targaryen blood: I actually don't believe that Corlys has any Targaryen blood, and I treated the Velaryons as having no Targaryen blood unless explicitly specified (such as Valaena, Laena, and Laenor). There are a few reasons for this, one being that since we know none of the main branch Targaryens for the past many generations married into the Velaryons. Trust me, I checked all of them lol. The most recent source of Targaryen blood Corlys could have possibly had would be if his great-grandfather Daemon Velaryon's unnamed father married a Targaryen women. Even if this was the case, and even if this woman was 100% Targaryen, it would mean Corlys had at most 6.25% Targaryen blood, and his sons at most 3.125%. That's no more than Borros Baratheon, and we didn't see him claiming any dragons.

But namely it's because you know if Corlys had even 0.000001% Targaryen blood this man would have been first in line to claim a dragon when everyone else was trying to. If he was Addam and Alyn's source of Targaryen blood, he had the better chance of claiming a dragon. And he's so obsessed with prestige, legacy, power, and Valyria that there's no way he would have willingly passed up on the chance to claim one. If he had any Targaryen blood, he would have tried to claim Seasmoke at some point after Laenor's death. Or, at a minimum, he would have tried to claim one of the remaining dragons after Addam was successful. But he never did, because he knew he wasn't the source of his sons' Targaryen blood.

So where did Addam and Alyn get their Targaryen heritage? It couldn't have been Corlys, so it must have been their mother, Marilda! We don't get any description of her physical appearance, nor of her parentage, but we know that she was a bastard, and that's important. I do have a theory for her parent, though there are obviously a few candidates of child-bearing age at that time: Saera Targaryen.

Why Saera? Marilda's father is said to be a shipwright, so it makes a little more sense that her Targaryen blood would come from her mother, not her father. There aren't too many Targaryen women who'd be fine with a child out of wedlock, but Saera absolutely would, she's not all gung ho for the patriarchy the way everyone else at the time is. And the timelines add up really well: Saera was noted to have left her home in Lys about a year before Marilda was born, and traveled a while before ending up in Volantis. It's not unthinkable that in her travels she came across a shipwright she took a fancy to. Saera isn't on my original chart, but she's the daughter of Jaehaerys I and Alysanne Targaryen, making her 37.5% Targaryen. By this logic, Marilda would be 18.75% Targaryen, and Addam and Alyn would be 9.375% Targaryen. Compare this to if Corlys was their source of Targaryen blood, where they would be 3.125% Targaryen, a whole three times weaker.

This actually tracks which how the two boys engage with dragons. Only one of the two brothers is actually successful in claiming a dragon. This shows that maybe at this point the ability to claim dragons has begun to slip, which also tracks with how the HotD series has shown that people like Aemond (~19%) and Lucerys (~14%) were able to claim dragons, but struggled to command them fully.

If you take Marilda as a dragonseed, her decision to send Addam and Alyn to claim dragons makes so much more sense. Why would she risk their lives to have them claim a dragon if their own father, with blood twice as strong and such a thirst for legacy, never risked it? It makes much more sense that she knew they had a strong Targaryen claim through herself. She merely took advantage of their Targaryen blood in order to force their deadbeat dad to acknowledge them as his heirs. He didn't care about them being half Velaryon, but he would care about them if they were dragonriding Targaryens.