The math of the gladiator pit is what bugs me. Kane killed 3 and was supposed to kill another the next day. Even if the gladiator pit was only weekend entertainment (come down to The Pit for a good time this Fri and Sat nite!), 4 kills a week for 6 years is 1248 people. You know, more than they started with. Population loss of 388 is about 1.2 dead a week, which sounds a lot. But not enough for unending 4 way cage matches!
Hi Anon,
I TOTALLY agree. When I was making estimates for the number of dead and the number available to eat for that post about eating people during the dark year - those population numbers were the weakest piece of the puzzle because of the gladiator matches.
If I were to invent a way out of this… Octavia based the gladiator matches on historical events - and perhaps the matches were just monthly tournaments where you could have multiple matches in a row and it could be more of a spectacle. It would also give the accused time to train so that it wouldn’t be a constant one-sided bloodbath - because if you know you’re going to win every gladiator fight it doesn’t necessarily motivate you to behave properly.
But of course, that’s me inventing a way out of it. None of that is canon. But it would be an escape route the writers could use if they got called out on it…
I’d also mention that I don’t know if you included a birth rate in your population estimation - but honestly I feel like that is negligible, plus if we start factoring in age limitations on participation in the gladiator matches the numbers will REALLY fall apart.
Thanks for your ask,Lynne
There was a match right before Kane’s first fight as well. That might have been a one-on-one fight or maybe one-on-four? So if all had gone as planned, that would be (at least) 5 kills that week, maybe 7.
One possibility is that the second match Kane was in was a follow-up match for both participants. Let’s say that the fights are normally a once-a-month event. There are several matches where people don’t earn their freedom. Then there are follow-up matches the following week.
Indra acted like she had options on who to pair Kane with, which implies a whole lot of participants. Even if there was only one other option, that would mean there was two other matches, so another six dead(?). If it was 13 deaths per month, that would be 156 dead a year. Maybe there are more one-on-one matches, which would be more like 120 dead a year. Closer, but that’s still too many for only 400 to have died in 6 years.
There’s a couple things I wonder. One is whether, after the “dark year,” the solution was more matches. Jackson was terrified of even telling Clarke why Abby was scared of Wonkru -- and Octavia tells Bellamy if he says one thing against Wonkru, he’s the enemy. As “laws” go, that’s pretty damn strict and would explain continued fighters. Because my other criticism would be that realistically there shouldn’t be that many people breaking the law, with that consequence.
Octavia is leading her people to population zero, based on the projected data. I wonder if that’s the point... that she was headed there rather or not she left the bunker. Based on what we know, the population seemed dependent on the conclaves both for a ritual way of life and for entertainment. The goal should be winding that down, but it seems to be the opposite. Their entire culture and stability seems dependent on it.
If we include births.... that makes this all so much worse. That means more than 400 people have died, which means more than 1/3 of the original population have died. Also, the thing with babies is that they won’t be able to fight for at least 10 years (besides physically able, they have to know what they are doing, at least I would hope that O wouldn’t hold a three-year-old accountable for making a complaint!). I did some calculations. At the rate they were going, of 80 deaths per year, they would all be dead in 16 years. At the rate of loosing 1/3 of their population every 6 years, even with having children, they would be at population zero in around 100 years. Around year 30, over half the population would be under 24. In year 30, there would be around 230 people left. 126 kids/young people and 104 adults. This is when numbers really start dropping because it takes 12-18 years for the kids to be old enough to have kids and so forth for every generation. The only way to course correct would be for everyone to start having multiple kids (though admittedly that wouldn’t correct the inbreeding that would occur 2-3 generations after that.) I’m putting my calculations under cut. Admittly, these are not completely accurate and it doesn’t account for any variables, like people waking up in a few years. BUT... this ARE the projections that O should be looking at as forewarning. I’m surprised that both viewers and characters “credit” Octavia for this. Like... this system ONLY WORKS if there is an end goal and/or it stabilizes enough that it’s a rare event. For example, with the plan to stop after they reach population 600. There’s no evidence that that is happening (I would say not considering O plans to kill the traitors in the next episode). The conclaves are about entertainment and control as much as population reduction. If Octavia were ever to stop, her society would crumble and that’s the issue.
So some figures below (I hope someone reads this as I just spent a few hours on it! haha):