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Maybe-Mathematical Musings

@jadagul / jadagul.tumblr.com

I math, I dance, I argue weird philosophy on the internet.
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ms-demeanor

Hey friend! So while I'm incredibly skeptical, I'm not strictly against alternative medicine, like you are. I saw you mention reiki, and thought you might geek out on this article like I did:

https://web.archive.org/web/20200308195914/https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/04/reiki-cant-possibly-work-so-why-does-it/606808/

It's called "Reiki Can't Possibly Work. So Why Does It?" and I highly encourage reading the whole thing. It first of all thoroughly debunks a lot of the claims reiki practitioners make but it also details all of the studies that have proven its effectiveness and provides what I find a pretty compelling explanation: that much of modern western medicine is stressful and traumatizing. Of course laying in a quiet room with the lights dimmed while a kind person sits with you and wishes for you to be well is effective. It reduces stress and all of the negative biological processes it triggers, which promotes healing.

The article mentions that for years we didn't understand the mechanism by which acetaminophen worked - we just knew it did. I knew a man who was really into "chakra therapy" in the 90s where he had a set of colored sunglasses that, supposedly, would rebalance one's out-of-whack chakras through light therapy. He found that attending to his throat chakra, yellow, helped him sleep better. Years later, formal studies found that yellow lenses filter blue light and can help regulate circadian rhythms.

When I was really little, my uncle sold magnet therapy products (which claimed to promote circulation?? I think??). I had a huge meltdown at a family reunion and no one could get me to calm down. My uncle put a blanket full of magnets on top of me, and I immediately relaxed. Imagine my surprise hearing that story for the first time as an adult who now uses a weighted blanket for stress.

I agree that people need to be really careful about these practices, about getting scammed, and especially about herbal supplements that can have dangerous interactions. I also think there's an extent to which you can analyze the risks and benefits and say, "Okay, I have no idea why this works but it does and there's no major downsides."

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Hey so I get a bit heated in this response but I want you to know that I approached this ask in good faith because I know you and I know that we have a lot of the same values and interests and this touched a nerve that was not at all your fault and once I get past the direct response to the article I think I come off a little less. Um. Like the aggression there is not directed at you, it's directed at the article and at one person mentioned in the article specifically who is part of why my reaction to the article is so not good. But I promise after the last bullet point I come off as less reactive, I think. (I'm also publishing this publicly because I think it may be helpful for people to see how CAM stuff often gets away with a veneer of skepticism-that-isn't-actually-skepticism - the article claims to be skeptical but then makes a ton of assumptions and cites some truly mind-bogglingly bad sources that a lot of people won't recognize as bad if they don't have a hair trigger trained by far too much time on the bad CAM parts of the internet).

I've actually read that article a few time times, and would like to do a quick rundown on why I find it unconvincing:

  • She doesn't cite any decent studies on reiki; one that she does cite is just a self-reported questionnaire response from 23 people in 2002.
  • While we don't know the exact mechanism of action for acetaminophen, we do know that it does work - it measurably reduces fever and in double blinded RCTs produces reproduceable results in reducing certain kinds of pain. The Science Based Medicine authors cited in the article who called for an end to studies on reiki did so both because there is no plausible mechanism of action for reiki (specifically as energy work, not as 'being in a room with a patient person who listens to you') and because there is no good evidence that it works. (And they wrote a follow-up to the Atlantic article; I like SBM but it's quite sneery, as are most of their write-ups of reiki). When Kisner asks "why should this be different?" when comparing reiki and acetaminophen, the answer is: because there is not only no plausible way that reiki *could* work, there is not any good evidence we have that it works better than placebo.
  • "Various non-Western practices have become popular complements to conventional medicine in the past few decades, chief among them yoga, meditation, and acupuncture, all of which have been the subject of rigorous scientific studies that have established and explained their effectiveness." This one sentence needs probably twenty or so links in response, suffice it to say that western medicine has emphatically not established and explained the effectiveness of AT LEAST acupuncture and the casually credulous way Kisner accepts that acupuncture is effective (effective FOR WHAT?) throws some serious doubt on her ability to assess these kinds of things.
  • The title of the article is "Reiki can't possibly work, so why does it?" and that's probably the Atlantic's fault more than Jordan Kisner's fault, but she doesn't ever demonstrate that it works. She says she got a buzzy feeling after her training, she says that patients at the VA were asking for reiki as treatment for pain and sleep disorders, she says that people remembered "healing touches" from parents and loved ones and that the same mechanism might be what makes reiki 'work.' She says that reiki "has been shown by various studies that pass evidentiary muster to help patients in a variety of ways when used as a complementary practice" and the two studies that she includes that weren't just a questionnaire were 1) a non-blinded study of heart rate variability post heart attack where the reiki arm involved continuous interaction with a trained nurse and the other two arms involved resting quietly or classical music (so relaxation as a result of additional focused attention by attentive medical professionals could account for this? Why was the control for this study not having a med student sit and hold the patient's hand?) and 2) a study of patients who sought out reiki who were surveyed after treatment and noted improvement on one of twenty mental or physical markers (this study is like, GOLD for an example of a bad study; no control, self-selected participants who believe in the efficacy of the intervention, exceptionally broad criteria for a positive result - I find it really really really challenging to grant any credence to someone who confidently cited this as an example of reiki "working")
  • Near the end of the article she says "At the same time, this recalled the most cutting-edge, Harvard-stamped science I’d read in my research: Ted Kaptchuk’s finding that the placebo effect is a real, measurable, biological healing response to “an act of caring.” - if she read any of Ted Kaptchuk's research she didn't link to it; what she did link to was a 2018 New York Times profile of him and Kathryn Hall, researchers at Harvard's Placebo Studies and the Therapeutic Encounter program. Being any flavor of journalist and citing Ted Kaptchuk as your source for cutting-edge, institutionally-backed science is disqualifying.

I now need to do some yelling about Ted Kaptchuk.

For clarity: I have as much medical training as Kathryn Hall and Ted Kaptchuk, which is to say: None.

Hall is a microbiologist with a PhD in Public Health, so she at least a background in science. Kaptchuk is an acupuncturist with a BA in East Asian studies and a doctorate in Chinese medicine - notably NOT a medical degree; he was forced to stop calling himself a doctor and had papers retracted after enough people questioned whether the school he claimed he attended even existed and the documents he presented to claim that he was an "OMD" were conclusively translated and did not have any indication that the granted a medical degree of any kind - Science Based Medicine was involved in investigating this because they've been comprehensively anti-quack forever and Ted Kaptchuk has been a quack forever (after recieving confirmation from the government of Macau that Kaptchuk's alma mater was not a medical degree granting institution SBM STILL gave him the benefit of the doubt and had people translate his documentation for final confirmation).

He is also an author on of one of my most beloathed ever studies, which showed that sham acupuncture, placebo, and albuterol all produced the same effect on patient-reported well-being, coming to the conclusion that patient reports can be unreliable and that "placebo effects can be clinically meaningful and can rival the effects of active medication in patients with asthma." That fucking line, that stupid goddamned line, gets cited in every piece of woo bullshit about how acupuncture or chiropractic or some scam-ass diet all work, I've run into this study while looking through at least twenty bibliographies and it is one of the biggest, reddest flags that whoever is writing the paper you're reading is full up on some bullshit. Because, see, the paper found that "placebo effects can be clinically meaningful and can rival the effects of active medication in patients with asthma" in terms of *patient-reported* markers, but the fucking study found that only albuterol produced an actual effect in lung function. Here's the sentence BEFORE the one that gets cited all the time: "Although albuterol, but not the two placebo interventions, improved FEV1 [forced expiratory volume in one second - the measure for lung function used in the study and used to diagnose asthma] in these patients with asthma, albuterol provided no incremental benefit with respect to the self-reported outcomes." It doesn't matter if the patient *feels* better if they can't actually breathe! It doesn't fucking matter - feeling better but still having poor breathing leaves you more vulnerable to dying of a fucking asthma attack! I hate this goddamned study so fucking much and it's used all the time to claim that placebo can be just as effective as medicine for making people FEEL better but, like, they're still sick even if they feel better! I HAVE HAD PEOPLE CITE THIS STUPID FUCKING STUDY TO ME AS EVIDENCE THAT I DON'T CARE ENOUGH ABOUT TREATING MY FUCKING ASTHMA BECAUSE I DON'T GET ACUPUNCTURE TO TREAT MY FUCKING ASTHMA. If sham acupuncture makes you feel better when you've got the flu but doesn't lower your fever or make you less contagious, you shouldn't act like you don't have a fever or aren't contagious this study makes me INSANE.

Okay done yelling.

  • I think this look at placebo in the midst of her article about reiki is really interesting because it's very common for CAM practitioners to claim that it's as effective as placebo - which just means that it's not effective. This is a great explanation from The Skeptic on why placebo isn't and can't be what Kaptchuk, Hall, and the like claim. It's also interesting to me that Kisner didn't choose to link to a 2011 New Yorker profile of Kaptchuk that is somewhat less rosy about his placebo studies and includes this absolutely crushing statement: "the placebo effect doesn’t appear to work with Alzheimer’s patients. Trivers suggests that this is because most people who have Alzheimer’s disease are unable to anticipate the future and are therefore unable to prepare for it."

But to the actual point of the ask: I honestly think it's fascinating how much CAM success probably rides on "well did you listen to the patient and pay attention to what was wrong with them and sympathize with them and help them lay out plan that made them feel like they had some agency in this exceptionally frustrating situation (chronic illness, newly diagnosed issue, totally undiagnosed issue) that they're dealing with?"

I know part of why people with chronic illnesses turn to CAM is because they're ignored and dismissed by allopathic practitioners who are largely looking for horses, not zebras - this is one of the reasons that I'm really big on reminding people that (at least in the US) DOs are fully licensed physicians who use a holistic and patient-centered approach so if you are someone with a chronic illness who has had trouble getting diagnosed or had trouble getting doctors to believe you, swapping your MD for a DO as a primary care physician might be really, really helpful to you.

But the flip side of that is that is that I worry deeply about the question of where harm starts; the example with your uncle is really great because you do have a solid instance of something working but for totally the wrong reason (pressure being the mechanism that actually helped, versus magnets being the reason given by the person who did the treatment). Some of this stuff has very little likelihood of causing direct harm, but has the distinct possibility of having indirect harms, which people in the anti-CAM space generally divide into two categories, treatment delay and unnecessary costs (opportunity costs, monetary costs, wasted effort, etc.)

I'm going to step outside of your specific example and look at magnet therapy generally, which really is a spectacular thing to focus on because it honestly doesn't have any direct harms; nobody is allergic to magnets, the kinds of magnets used aren't strong enough to interfere with medical devices, it's even safer than the whole "well herbalism is sometimes just a cup of tea" thing because there are "safe" teas that can do real harm to large populations! But simply being around magnets is not going to hurt anyone (unless they're swallowed; nobody swallow magnets please).

One of the things that I think goes under-discussed when talking about placebo and CAM is that the people trying the alternative solutions desperately WANT the alternative medicine to work (I suspect that this is why the self-selected study of reiki patients has such a significant finding). They are pulling for it; they may be looking at it as a last resort, or they may be hoping that it will work to avoid a treatment that is more frightening, expensive, or inaccessible. I think this actually contributes a lot to the delay of care that we see with CAM.

The absolute worst case harm I can imagine from magnetic therapy is delaying treatment. Let's suppose we've got a diabetic patient with gradually increasing peripheral neuropathy; they have reacted poorly to gabapentin in the past and are looking for something more natural, and they hear from their chiropractor that magnet therapy can be used to treat neuropathy. They buy some compression socks with "magnetic and earthing properties" and sleep in the socks. Whether through the compression controlling some edema or through the simple desire for the socks to work, they feel some relief from the nerve pain they were experiencing and decide that this is a success. The socks work! They continue wearing the socks with occasional pain, but less than before. However, because they are focused on the lack of pain, they don't notice that it's accompanied by increasing numbness. The numbness significantly increases their risk of injury to their feet, which significantly increases their risk of amputation.

It probably sounds like catastrophizing to say "using magnets could lead to amputation" but honestly I don't think it's that far out of the realm of possibility (every time I post on this topic I get flooded with the saddest stories in the world about people whose loved ones died because of delayed treatment for cancer or heart disease).

The second category of harm is cost, which is honestly pretty minimal with magnet therapy, as long as you aren't spending $1049 on a magnetic mat

or paying a chiropractor to give you magnetic treatments. For some other medically harmless treatments like reiki, cost is the thing that I worry about - while I was looking up information related to the article I found that people are charging anywhere from $60 to $225 a session, and selling multi-session packages for thousands of dollars - and if someone thinks that something works, even if it only works by being in a soothing space where someone cares about you - they'll pay for it.

I'm aware that all of this is also extra complicated because of the cost and lack of access to allopathic medicine - a chiropractor broke my spine because I could pay her $60 per appointment but I couldn't pay $125 to see an MD when I didn't have insurance. People who are sick are going to look for treatment; people who have been denied treatment or dismissed by doctors are going to look for alternative treatments.

But man, I really wish I'd spent that sixty bucks on half of a doctor's appointment because the chiropractor didn't know about the benign tumor that I had that weakened the structure of that particular bone when she did her adjustment; it also didn't make the pain go away, it made a different pain start and get worse because it turns out I was having debilitating muscle spasms that then had a bone injury added in on top.

(Chiropractic, for the record, goes with chelation therapy and many many many many cases of herbalism where it's NOT just cost or delay; people claim these treatments are harmless and they are not. They can do tremendous harm).

But yeah I'm not going to deny at all that all of this would be a hell of a lot better if people (especially marginalized people) didn't have to jump through hoops to prove to a doctor that something is wrong with them, and didn't have to do so in an appointment that attempts to cram whole person care down into fifteen minutes, and didn't have the possibility of bankrupting you. Interacting with allopathic medicine is a nightmare and I totally understand why people want to look outside of it for treatment.

I've just heard too many horror stories and seen too much predatory CAM to cut much of it any slack.

At the end of the SBM response to the Atlantic article, the author (I can't remember if it's Gorski or Novella) makes the point that reiki is a spiritual practice, and that we've known for a long time that spiritual practices can improve a person's well-being in a number of ways; they can reduce anxiety, they can provide community, they can give people a space to feel and express emotions that they certainly aren't going to be able to process in a doctor's office. Spiritual practices can be wonderful, and we know there are a lot of people who they can help. But they aren't medicine, and attempting to replace medicine with them (which I don't think that most reiki practitioners are trying to do, to be fair, but which Ted Kaptchuk DEFINITELY is in trying to 'harness the power of placebo') is a disservice to people who need an inhaler instead of acupuncture.

Also, and I know this was not your point but I have to bring it up because people ask about it whenever discussions of placebo come up:

The placebo effect is not treatment. The placebo effect, whether achieved through deception or when someone says loud and clear "this is a sugar pill" does not improve an illness, but it may improve how a patient *feels* about an illness. In some cases, this may as well be the same thing - if you're dealing with muscle pain because you're stressed and no matter what you do it doesn't go away because your shoulders are always up around your ears and you're grinding your teeth and you're sleeping poorly, then literally just talking to someone who is in an office and says "this is a sugar pill, go ahead and take it" may make your muscle pain feel better, but it isn't going to reduce your stress and it isn't going to last, and if your muscle pain is because you're feeling angina as a result of a partially blocked artery then it SURE AS FUCK is not going to make you better and may mask symptoms that were a warning sign of a much more serious problem. People who are sick deserve actual treatment, and placebo is not treatment, which is part of why Ted Kaptchuk makes me want to tear my hair out.

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>didn't have to do so in an appointment that attempts to cram whole person care down into fifteen minutes Hol up, this because they charge more for a long appointment or because Americans don't have long appointments? I mean the price for long appointments is eye-watering but it's a cost that can be made legible without too much nastiness with patients being seen late or being subtly told to fuck off. It's still all very rushed obvs, but it's not like being disabled doesn't involve feeling guilty for wasting people's time sooooo

There is such a shortage of primary care providers that, unless you are dealing with some exceptional circumstances, PCP appointments are generally booked for 15 minutes; if an appointment runs long (due to being complicated or an emergency or something) the provider will have to make up time through the rest of the day.

This study includes information on visit length from four million patients visiting eight thousand doctors over one year with a median visit length of 18 minutes.

It also can take 38 days to get an appointment if you're a new patient to that practice.

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tanadrin

seems like there's a bunch of pressures in the provision of healthcare that could be improved just by training more doctors

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jadagul

Yes but then we might have to pay doctors less, and that's unacceptable.

(Also because the Medicare budget process is insane, it would raise government expenditures even though it would save money on each visit.)

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kata4a

philip glass's etudes have a bunch of sections like this

that people seem to really consistently play like this

it's especially obvious in this (very good) performance:

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jadagul

Last time I was taking piano lessons this is one of the things my teacher was really working on me to do right.

even at this tempo? 😭

Not that specific piece, so no comments on tempo.

But the idea that in voiced music (we were doing Bach and Mozart) you need to distinguish an eighth note-plus-eighth rest from a quarter note.

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reblogged
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kata4a

philip glass's etudes have a bunch of sections like this

that people seem to really consistently play like this

it's especially obvious in this (very good) performance:

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jadagul

Last time I was taking piano lessons this is one of the things my teacher was really working on me to do right.

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I feel like leftists who rush to dunk on Paul Erlich should probably show a little more humility. Like, there’s two historical events/processes that played out from the 70s-90s that consequently invalidated his predictions of imminent mass famine. Firstly, a new scientific advance in the Green Revolution unlocked even greater crop yields than had already been unlocked by the fertilizer revolution of the late 19th and early 20th century. Hurrah for agribusiness.

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jadagul

Ehrlich was writing after the Green Revolution. Ehrlich was contemptuous of the Green Revolution, giving it as an example of "technology causing more problems than it solves".

But Ehrlich got the last laugh, I suppose, because we followed his policy preferences and that's why we're poor and energy-deprived today. The reason we can't provide for all 11 billion humans is we stopped building things. In a modern economy, more people is better and creates more wealth; building things is good and creates more wealth. But thinking that people suck and technology sucks and building things sucks—that's the core problem we're struggling with.

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tanadrin

laser tag places are always like “no running, no laying down, no touching, waah waah we can’t afford the liability insurance.” boring. where do i go for the  underground full-contact laser tag where i can tackle people from on top of the crates.

where can i get a melee kill

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tehamelie

I’m gonna go with “someplace not in the US.” That’s the country of frivolous lawsuits.

this is your regular reminder that the US is not the country of frivolous lawsuits, and the idea that it is is 90s era conservative propaganda toward capping punitive damages so that malicious actors can get away with bad behavior due to a weak regulatory enforcement regime (the other thing conservatives in the 90s pushed hard). the US long ago made a decision that a lot of regulatory enforcement would come not from agencies proactively enforcing rules but from creating specific causes of action through legislation so that individuals could sue to protect their own rights. fine as far as it goes, and maybe appealing to those with a libertarian streak, but even that was too much for conservatives who oppose any and all regulatory framework regardless of how it was managed.

and it worked–by capping punitive damages under the justification that there were people running around getting rich filing frivolous lawsuits (often by lying about cases of serious harm caused by firms acting in genuinely negligent ways, like in Liebeck v McDonalds), weak regulatory regimes in areas like environmental law and consumer safety were hollowed out further. the real danger of frivolous lawsuits never came from consumers suing over harm they suffered, it always came from people with deep pockets using lawsuits to silence people who challenged them. some states have passed anti-SLAPP legislation to curb such abuses of the legal system, but there’s still no federal anti-SLAPP statute, and there really should be.

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jadagul

You know, no matter how many times people bring this up (and no matter how horrific Liebeck’s injuries were, which it seems like they were), I just can’t see a good argument for holding McDonald’s liable for the injuries.

Actually I have now discovered one thing which I feel like doesn't come up a lot, but which does persuade me at least somewhat, which is that they'd had hundreds of reports of burns. That might rise to a "dangerous product" standard.

But I do feel like, if market research says people prefer the coffee to be served hotter even if they "shouldn't", that's something that we should be offering to them.

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tanadrin

laser tag places are always like “no running, no laying down, no touching, waah waah we can’t afford the liability insurance.” boring. where do i go for the  underground full-contact laser tag where i can tackle people from on top of the crates.

where can i get a melee kill

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tehamelie

I’m gonna go with “someplace not in the US.” That’s the country of frivolous lawsuits.

this is your regular reminder that the US is not the country of frivolous lawsuits, and the idea that it is is 90s era conservative propaganda toward capping punitive damages so that malicious actors can get away with bad behavior due to a weak regulatory enforcement regime (the other thing conservatives in the 90s pushed hard). the US long ago made a decision that a lot of regulatory enforcement would come not from agencies proactively enforcing rules but from creating specific causes of action through legislation so that individuals could sue to protect their own rights. fine as far as it goes, and maybe appealing to those with a libertarian streak, but even that was too much for conservatives who oppose any and all regulatory framework regardless of how it was managed.

and it worked–by capping punitive damages under the justification that there were people running around getting rich filing frivolous lawsuits (often by lying about cases of serious harm caused by firms acting in genuinely negligent ways, like in Liebeck v McDonalds), weak regulatory regimes in areas like environmental law and consumer safety were hollowed out further. the real danger of frivolous lawsuits never came from consumers suing over harm they suffered, it always came from people with deep pockets using lawsuits to silence people who challenged them. some states have passed anti-SLAPP legislation to curb such abuses of the legal system, but there’s still no federal anti-SLAPP statute, and there really should be.

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jadagul

You know, no matter how many times people bring this up (and no matter how horrific Liebeck's injuries were, which it seems like they were), I just can't see a good argument for holding McDonald's liable for the injuries.

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tanadrin

People think trump is “authentic” even though he lies all the time—even though many voted for him on the assumption he was lying about the few things he is probably being honest about—because he does not speak in cliches, and he is willing to piss people off. That’s it, that’s all it takes. And frankly even democratic politicians who have a reputation as rebels like Bernie Sanders are pretty dang milquetoast in comparison.

I really feel like a lot of centrist pundits had their brains broken by the sister souljah kerfluffle in the 1992 campaign, which has taken on totemic status in the horse-race-obsessed quarters of American politics, but it is simply objectively inarguable that you do not need to establish your moderate bona fides to win elections anymore (if it ever was—the real thing at work there in 1992 was the way race functions in American politics, which has always been pretty sui generis). And I don’t think it’s that the United States tolerates far right radicals better than they tolerate middle-left social democrats, it’s that the far right have stumbled onto a weirdly effective standard bearer and most of his major political opponents don’t understand why he is effective.

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jadagul

Average Americans think Trump is moderate! He has very established moderate bona fides. This is stupid but it's an important facet of the current political dynamic.

Early 2016:

July 2020:

November 2024:

(Yes, in the last one voters saw Harris as slightly closer to the "center" than Trump, but saw themselves as somewhat right of center.)

This is a fact about politics that educated left-liberals tend to really resist, because it seems horrifyingly wrong. But that is what people believe!

And there are some reasons they believe that. Trump genuinely did moderate on entitlements. And at least verbally he moderated a lot on abortion. And "entitlement spending and abortion" is like 70% of what "conservative politics" meant prior to 2016, right?

Now, the way he moderated worked for him in large part because he's obviously full of shit and when he said multiple things, big parts of his coalition chose to assume that whichever one they supported was the one he really meant. (See e.g. the recent immigration kerfluffle.)

But "voters reward [perceived] moderation" is one of the most thoroughly attested facts about electoral democracy, and Trump is an example of this.

the point is that trying to carve out a position as an inoffensive moderate does not in itself result in being perceived as a moderate. it results in your political messaging being ignored (because it is phatic and contentless and gets filtered out as noise) and your opponents getting to define your position. my point here is not "democrats should go as far left as possible," it is not "voters are punishing democrats for not being leftist enough" (a view some people do have which is plainly nonsense), it's that democrats suck at political messaging, and to claim any position in the public consciousness, even a moderate one, they need to improve their political messaging and do substantive stuff that opposes and impedes what trump is trying to do.

fierce obstructionism, especially against trump's most unpopular policies, will help create awareness of those problems, by making the fight over them noteworthy. that in turn will help make people aware of the ways in which trump is immoderate. and continuing to scream "hey these guys are fucking nazis" when they do nazi things, rather than rolling one's eyes at people who make a big deal out of the nazi stuff (as yglesias seems wont to do) also is more liable to make the fact that trump officials seem to want to do a lot of nazi stuff part of the public discourse.

like. the fact people perceived trump as a moderate does not mean that what democrats need to do to be perceived as moderates is be meekly bipartisan, bc trump does not do that! but a lot of people see trump being perceived as a moderate, and scold the democrats for not doing what passed as "moderate" behavior in like the 1990s, which is silly, bc the media and political landscape has changed a lot in the last 25 years.

"moderate" does not mean "inoffensive meek bipartisan"!

See, I agree with this, but as a consumer of Yglesias Thought I don't think he'd disagree either!

You gotta be partisan. You gotta hammer the Republicans.

But, crucially, you have to hammer them on things that aren't popular (neither McConnell nor Trump attacked the Democrats for defending social security!), and not talk a lot about your own unpopular positions (it's very important that Trump's statements on abortion and medicare vary between avoidance and capitulation-to-the-left).

The Democrats have lately had a tendency to (1) brag about how left-wing they are and (2) require their moderate members to defend the unpopularly left-wing positions. And those are both bad ideas.

Now one thing that's going on here: issue salience matters, and part of Trump's success is in moderating on issues that are salient to the median voter while going hard core on issues that are salient to educated professionals. Like the's not at all moderate on rule of law stuff, but rule of law has always been something the elites were forcing upon the masses.

Now you're right that it's probably possible to make people care about that, but you can't do that just by complaining about it; you have to actually take concentrated coherent action to make that seem significant to people who don't automatically think it is.

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tanadrin

People think trump is “authentic” even though he lies all the time—even though many voted for him on the assumption he was lying about the few things he is probably being honest about—because he does not speak in cliches, and he is willing to piss people off. That’s it, that’s all it takes. And frankly even democratic politicians who have a reputation as rebels like Bernie Sanders are pretty dang milquetoast in comparison.

I really feel like a lot of centrist pundits had their brains broken by the sister souljah kerfluffle in the 1992 campaign, which has taken on totemic status in the horse-race-obsessed quarters of American politics, but it is simply objectively inarguable that you do not need to establish your moderate bona fides to win elections anymore (if it ever was—the real thing at work there in 1992 was the way race functions in American politics, which has always been pretty sui generis). And I don’t think it’s that the United States tolerates far right radicals better than they tolerate middle-left social democrats, it’s that the far right have stumbled onto a weirdly effective standard bearer and most of his major political opponents don’t understand why he is effective.

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jadagul

Average Americans think Trump is moderate! He has very established moderate bona fides. This is stupid but it's an important facet of the current political dynamic.

Early 2016:

July 2020:

November 2024:

(Yes, in the last one voters saw Harris as slightly closer to the "center" than Trump, but saw themselves as somewhat right of center.)

This is a fact about politics that educated left-liberals tend to really resist, because it seems horrifyingly wrong. But that is what people believe!

And there are some reasons they believe that. Trump genuinely did moderate on entitlements. And at least verbally he moderated a lot on abortion. And "entitlement spending and abortion" is like 70% of what "conservative politics" meant prior to 2016, right?

Now, the way he moderated worked for him in large part because he's obviously full of shit and when he said multiple things, big parts of his coalition chose to assume that whichever one they supported was the one he really meant. (See e.g. the recent immigration kerfluffle.)

But "voters reward [perceived] moderation" is one of the most thoroughly attested facts about electoral democracy, and Trump is an example of this.

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Mathematics involves solving problems. But solving problems shows up in other domains, too. How, generally speaking, should one solve a problem?

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I've always been partial to the SMBC answer.

But that's of course not actually helpful. I'm not sure if I have an actually helpful answer!

But a major insight I get from math is (1) know what you're trying to do and (2) do what you can. I wrote about this method here, but the basic idea is you look at your tools and see what you can do; then you look at your goal and see what would be enough to win. Then you go back to your tools and see if that gives you any more ideas for things you can do, then go back to your goals and see if that gives you more ideas for how you could get what you want.

And you have a sort of iterative process of working forward from your abilities, and backwards from your goals, and hopefully you meet in the middle and see a solution.

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Since I finished FFXIII, I want to do a couple of concluding wrap-up thoughts.

A major one is that it, in a lot of ways, really doesn't feel like "a Final Fantasy game". In a lot of ways that's hard to pin down; the FF games have had a lot of variety! But there are a lot of FF standbys that it just doesn't include.

Like, okay, they called their elemental attacks "Fire/Fira/Firaga", good show. But unless there's a second post-post-game crystarium upgrade there's no Flare or Holy. There's no MP, which is weird.

And fundamentally, the class system is just wildly different from the other FF games, even the ones that don't have classes. What I really want to say is that it doesn't have classes, it has roles, in a way that feels very inspired by MMOs.

I said that FFXII has a rhythm that feels very MMO-like: dropped into a big city and now you have to go hunt five rats. FFXIII is the opposite of that structurally: there's a hyper-linear narrative that makes you special and central from the start.

But the role system works like I understand MMO roles. You have DPS (commando and ravager), tanking (sentinel), buffs (synergist), debufs (saboteur), and healer (medic). You can halfway map this onto classic classes: commando is warrior, ravager is black mage, medic is white mage. Except even that doesn't work because commando has magic attacks! To the extent earlier games have a tank it's also the warrior, and buffs and debuffs were split across black, white, and sometimes time or something.

But also, they're not classes. Sazh and Hope both get to be synergists, but they have pretty distinct ability sets even within their synergist crystaria. But they're filling the same party role. And that feels like a MMO way of approaching character ability sets.

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Anonymous asked:

In your Fictional History of Numbers, Part 3, you say that the probability of a randomly selected real number being rational must be 0, because if it were any 1/n then the reals would be in correspondence with the rationals and therefore countable. Does this follow? Why can't the probability be some irrational real? (I mean, I know that it is 0, and I intuit that it must be smaller than 1/n for any n, but it's not obvious to me that this is the basis for a rigorous proof.)

Yeah, I agree it's not rigorous. (It's a general audience piece!) The detail you have to fill in is: if the probability is some real number 0<r<1, then we can find a rational n such that 1/n < r < 1/(n+1), and then you can divide the reals up into n sets, each of which is the cardinality of the rationals. (And all of that requires some extra justification about, like, measure being invariant under translation etc. but again general audience piece.)

Also, the paragraph beginning "The reals are ordered" is kind of confusing, because it uses the adjective "ordered" in a way which can be read ambiguously as 'ordered (set)' or 'ordered (field)'. The first sentence seems to define "ordered" as 'ordered (set)'; the third sentence notes that the 'ordered (field)' properties are satisfied but doesn't read like part of the definition; the fourth sentence only makes sense if "ordered" means 'ordered (field)'.

Yes, I'm being a little imprecise there, because I think it flows better narratively. But yeah, the important claim is that the reals are ordered in a way that's compatible with the field axioms.

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Finished Final Fantasy XIII tonight. (Might go back and do some of the hunts etc. postgame, but I'm Officially Done.)

I liked it but was kind of disappointed. I'd rank it above XII and also I think above X-2, but definitely below 5,6,7, 9, 10. (I hated VIII, unfortunately.)

Interestingly, my core complaint is the exact opposite of my complaints about FFXII. The core story was quite good! There were six characters, they all made sense as characters, the main story was tight and compelling and all the beats basically landed. (Except I have a specific complaint about the ending below the cut.)

But there was essentially no side content, at all. They imagined this big world but you never get to see any of it. Presumably because developing all that out would be extremely expensive, but Watsonianly because you're all fugitives on the run and so need to hide from people.

But it makes all the environments feel incredibly artificial. All of them are straight-line paths that never take you past anything you could interact with. There's less side questing than any game since at least four, and I think fewer side conversations with NPCs since the Famicom and possibly since ever. Everything feels so thin.

Compare this with, say, FFX, which my girlfriend is playing through right now. There's so much thought put into how the environments would work. Obviously they're somewhat artificial, but all the temples have side rooms whose only real purpose is to look like the sort of rooms that the temple would have to have. Lots of characters you can chat with who say the sorts of things people in the world would say. The story in FFX is just as linear as the story in XIII, and the dungeons are honestly about as linear too. But the world feels real because you can poke around and talk to people.

And the combat system in XIII is moderately cool but at some point started just feeling long. I did mostly the same thing in every battle but they all took like two minutes, which made stuff toward the end feel like a slog. There was a window in like Chapter 11 where everything felt great, but then it slowed down again. Combined with the shit-to-nonexistent fast travel system, it makes messing around feel really unrewarding.

Specific spoilery ending complaint below the cut:

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jadagul

Continually surprised by how many students think the registrar's computer system should automatically know if I have signed a PDF and emailed it to them.

urpriest TBF, that's because you shouldn't have to sign a pdf and email it to them, you should just check a box in the university's system and maybe have to input your password again.

On the one hand, you're absolutely right, and I've been hassling the administration about this. (We used to have a system like that, and then they turned it off!)

But still. If they email me a PDF form, and I sign it and email it back, I would think they'd realize they need to send it to someone in order to make things happen.

Especially since the top of the form looks like this:

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reblogged

Casually writing, use the phrase "button-down shirt", stop to wonder if it's "button-down" or "button-up", spend the next few minutes trying to get an answer, come across this wonderful line:

All button-down shirts are button-ups, but not all button-ups are button-downs.

You're killing me.

(The answer is that you can probably use either in writing and it's not really going to matter. The better answer is that a button-down shirt is specifically one where the tips of the collar have small buttons to pin them in place, and a button-up shirt is one that has a line of buttons down up the middle.)

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jadagul

My understanding is that classically, a shirt that has buttons up the middle was just a "shirt"; shirts that didn't have those were marked and got adjectives. (t-shirt, polo shirt, rugby shirt, etc.) A button-down shirt is a specific, more-casual type of shirt.

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Continually surprised by how many students think the registrar's computer system should automatically know if I have signed a PDF and emailed it to them.

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sizhens

THE GENDER VIBES POLL #2: REDUX

No wrong answers! Person in photo is OK with people choosing whatever answer! This is for science! Please reblog for sample size! Especially curious about the choices of people who do not follow "tumblr user sizhens"

HELP IM 27??????? "TOO YOUNG"????

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loki-zen

The definition of professor varies from country to country, but even taking a relatively expansive definition like "anyone who teaches at a university in their own right and not as an assistant to someone", that usually means having a Doctorate.

27 is not impossibly young to have completed a PhD but it's still very very young to have done so, so yeah if you see a 27 year old on a university campus it is much more likely that they're a student than a professor.

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jadagul

In the US, "professor" generally includes anyone with a doctorate who is at a university instructional position. In math even postdocs are generally styled as "professorships". ("Visiting Assistant Professor", usually.)

(I remember when I was at Cambridge, I had a dance team friend who was like two years past her PhD and had a very junior lectureship. She was applying for positions in the US and was reflexively flattered every time one of the sent her an email addressed to "Professor Lastname".)

I got a professorship, in this broad-net American sense, immediately after my PhD (which I got about as quickly as is reasonable, though not precociously). And I turned 28 like two months later. So I was in fact briefly a 27-year-old professor. But that's at the very edge of normal!

(Aside: we were doing linear approximation the week of my birthday, so I wrote a question that was something like "I turn 28 this week, which means my age will no longer be a perfect cube. Cheer me up by approximating the cube root of 28.")

But also: I look younger than I am. So I was a 27-year-old professor for two months, but I was a professor people frequently assumed to be a student for years.

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jadagul

Just found out about another set of number: algebraic periods, a countable ring between the algebraics and the complex which includes many popular transcendental numbers.

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Oh yeah, periods are lurking in the background of a lot of my PhD research but I never wound up focusing on them.

The big thing there is, you can add in any finite (or, I think, countable) set of transcendental numbers and still stay in a countable set. So just "what about pi?" isn't a good explanation of why the reals; you could use the algebraic numbers plus pi (and e), or whatever.

Which is why I focused, not really on the existence of pi, but on the sort of argument that produces it. If you stick to a countable set you could have pi, but you won't be able to make that sort of limiting argument reliably.

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intimate-mirror i think "the computable numbers" is a nice set to do things with because 1. it is countable 2. it contains pi and e and so on not as a special case but automatically

Yep, I wrote about those here. They're even bigger than the periods, though the periods do include pi and e. But they're still not all the reals so they're still not complete. Which means that, e.g., the intermediate value theorem and mean value theorem aren't true, and you can have non-constant functions with everywhere zero derivative.

Now if you limit yourself to only computable functions, in an appropriate sense, that problem goes away. But if you allow noncomputable functions you get problems sticking to the computable numbers.

Just limiting yourself to computable functions isn't quite enough due to the existence of Specker sequences. You have to add additional constraints to get to computable analysis, as I understand it.

I mean "computable function" isn't a term that automatically defines itself. I think when I looked into this last year, the major texts defined "computable function", or possibly "computably continuous function", in such a way as to make the computable mean value theorem true for computably continuous functions on the computable numbers.

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