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#election 2024 – @goodgrammaritan on Tumblr
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I am surely in the toils.

@goodgrammaritan / goodgrammaritan.tumblr.com

She/her tricenarian. Books, animals, music(als).
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libraford

This section from Heather Cox Richardson this morning struck one hell of a cord with me today.

I've always believed that deep down- most Americans want the same things. They want safe food, roads without potholes, and they want to be left to live lives as they please as long as no one is hurt.

But the propaganda, the conspiracy theories, the cults of personality- they can be so loud sometimes that it drowns out sense. And they used that to their advantage to paint a scary picture of the country that doesn't exist because fear works.

And here we are.

#election 2024#us politics
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brehaaorgana

Idk guys, maybe people are blaming leftists who refused to vote because of genocide because I literally saw them holding political rallies last weekend in a swing state telling people not to vote

Like it wasn't just tumblr leftists saying not to vote for Kamala, or at all, because of Palestine. Those were real people I walked past last Saturday in Pennsylvania, a key swing state. They had megaphones in front of Philadelphia city hall and a sizeable crowd. I feel like we can, in fact, say they are partly culpable here.

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zazaofpugs

I’m going to say it loud for the people in the back. It was white, right-leaning Americans.

1. Leftists are not a huge voting bloc. If we could single-handily swing an election, then my brother in Christ why would we not be electing more leftist candidates up and down the ticket?

2. You were hoping there were enough lefties in fucking Pennsylvania and Georgia? Why? Do those states strike you all as teeming with leftist activism?

It was the same voting bloc it always is. White, suburban and rural folks. We don’t need a scapegoat when the answer is so fucking obvious.

White supremacy won last night.

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brehaaorgana

This is an embarrassing reply lol

  1. Reading comprehension babes. I said "partly culpable." Meaning there are other responsible factors. One of many. Y'all. Please read words. I believe in you.
  2. I don't think leftists have enough population to vote only sufficiently leftist candidates into office, I think they have enough population to meaningfully contribute to generically Democrat candidates though. That's called "consolidating the base." The republican party succeeds more easily when the democratic/left base is divided. Always has.
  3. Plenty of moderate people can hear "don't vote, don't support genocide" and then just fucking not vote. People who decide not to vote and vocally say so will influence other people. That's the whole point of vocalizing your non-vote.
  4. These people are the same people who in turn, are not reaching out to moderate or even conservative people and talking about voting for the candidate who isn't trump and why. Voter outreach can sway people. Talking to friends, family, neighbors — sways people. This is just a fact.
  5. Have....you ever been to Philadelphia? The leftist protest i saw last weekend where people were discouraging voting was not the first time I had seen these people. Lmfao. Pennsylvania is a swing state. Philly is a big ass city which, like many cities, is typically the liberal stronghold part of a swing state. Hey uh do the math on Philly 2020 vs 2024.

In 2020 democrats had 603,790 votes, and only lost 4,487 to the liberal party. A total of 741,377 votes cast.

In 2024, democrats had 529,783 votes, and lost 7,780 votes to the liberal and green parties. A total of 674,726 votes cast.

This means that 66,651 LESS votes were cast. Some of these could be covid or natural deaths of regular voters, but it wouldn't be all of them.

The democrats lost nearly 8,000 votes to other left parties in a democratic stronghold county in a swing state. The republicans had no such division. And in addition to this, nearly 67,000 less ballots were cast overall.

Now look at their neighboring county, Bucks county. Bucks is a KEY county to win. It flipped red:

The democrats lost 3,676 votes to other left parties (liberal and green). The republicans only had 1,963 more votes than democrats.

Democrats lost Bucks county because 3,676 people voted for other left parties, which allowed republicans to gain a clear advantage. This is actually less than the number of people who voted liberal in 2020 in Bucks county (4,155), but also, 396,234 people voted in Bucks in 2020, and only 385,519 voted this year. That's 10,715 less votes between two elections. Yes, some of that is due to death rates. But NOT all of it.

Less voter turnout overall ALSO means that voting third party has a higher negative impact for the Democrats. Or to put it another way, 4,155 votes wasn't enough to make democrats lose bucks county in 2020, and also wouldn't have helped republicans win. But in 2024, losing 3,676 votes combined with 10,715 less voters overall — cost democrats bucks county.

You're just looking at the statewide numbers and going "Kamala wouldn't have won with 65,310 more votes." And technically yes, if that's all you're considering. But that's not how elections are thought about or won.

But also: 6,915,283 voted in 2020. 6,814,580 in PA this year. 100,703 less votes overall.

The reasons why PA went red aren't simply "white supremacy won." Less people voted in this election. When less people vote, third party votes have more of a weighted negative impact dividing the overall left base, because they're LESS likely to make up the losses in undecided/independent voters. It mattered less to have more third party votes in 2020 because 100,000+ more people were voting overall, where those losses could be made up.

Because the Democrats only won 80,555 more votes than Republicans in 2020. So losing 79,380 votes to a third party would have been disastrous in 2020, EXCEPT for the fact that 100,000 more people voted in PA. And the more people who vote, the more likely Democrats are to win the popular vote. Democrats win by increasing voter turnout and minimizing the impact of third party votes.

People protesting in big groups, or postering flyers everywhere in swing states telling people to a) not vote or b) to vote third party contributed to Donald Trump winning this election. This is just math. Johns Hopkins reports 1,123,836 Covid deaths so we can't just blame decreased voter turnout on Covid alone.

Donald Trump received LESS of the popular vote than he did in 2020. 158,481,688 people voted in 2020. 140,965,949 votes have been counted for 2024.

2,354,264 LESS people voted for Donald Trump in 2024 than in 2020 and he still became president. The Republican party LOST VOTES compared to the previous presidential election where they also lost. Donald Trump did not win by having more white supremacist voters than he did in 2020 - his overall votes went down from 2020 when he lost the election. Less people voted for him than they did in 2020.

Donald Trump won because less people voted overall. Less voters mean that third party votes dividing the anti-trump voting bloc have a greater impact, and votes blocking trump from winning are harder to gain back because there's less people voting.

Also edit to clarify that I didn't fucking make this up lol I specifically saw these people on 11/2/24:

The leftists are indeed in the room with us.

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mckitterick

and let's not forget the Russian agents that again sowed discord among American voters, especially on the Left, by endlessly barraging us with direct messages and "reblog this please" posts ultimately designed to keep people from voting for the candidate who cares about our allies and oppressed people beyond our borders, and who would have continued to make Russia's imperialist goals difficult and expensive - especially tricky because they almost always used the plight of Gazans, not Ukrainians, to distract us from seeing through them

Twitter, especially, seethed with disinformation and anti-Democratic propaganda because of the creep who owns it

plus those cries for donations to (almost entirely) fake charities - especially when real ones already exist - provided a financial bonus to the bot-farmers

and of course the successful right-wing efforts to disenfranchise voters didn't help turnout for the opposition

#election 2024#long posts
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useless-englandfacts

oh someone at the guardian has lost the will to live

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useless-englandfacts

christ (source)

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pommedepersephone

I mean, it's true.

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mckitterick

to be fair, this was far less a trump victory - he captured far fewer votes this time around than during his prior loss - as it was left-leaning voters' apathy in not showing up to stop him (and of course the successful right-wing efforts to disenfranchise voters)

and their failure to show up and do their duty cost the entire Legislative branch as well, which means SCOTUS will only get worse if one or more Supreme Court Justices retire

sorry, entire world. our bad

#election 2024#us politics#voter apathy#russian interference#ugh
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