The results of Germany’s Bundestag elections are mostly in – but they do not show a clear winner.
The center-left SPD led by Olaf Scholz won the largest number of seats. But they are far from a clear majority. Even a coalition with the Greens (Bündnis 90/Die Grünen), a party which served with the SPD in the 1998-2005 ruling coalition, would not add up to a parliamentary majority.
The center-right CDU/CSU led by Armin Laschet came in second behind the SPD. With the retiring Angela Merkel no longer leading that bloc, their vote percentage tumbled to its lowest point since the founding of the Federal Republic of Germany. Its path to power is more uncertain than that of the SPD.
The kingmakers are the next two parties: the Greens and the FDP. The Greens are pro-environment and generally progressive. The FDP is pro-free market but liberal on social issues.
Numerically it will be impossible for either the SPD or the CDU/CSU to form a government without BOTH the Greens and the FDP. Much of the upcoming negotiations will be concerned with getting the Greens and FDP in agreement.
During the campaign the CDU/CSU had been warning voters about the danger of a coalition between the SPD, the Greens, and the Left (Die Linke). The latter is a peculiar grouping of former communists from the old East Germany, aging counterculture radicals, and leftist hipsters. The CDU/CSU’s “red scare” fell flat when it became apparent that support for Left nosedived in the election leaving them with too few seats to help the SPD reach a majority.
The far-right AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) saw a moderate dip in its electoral support. But they would not be a factor in any case because none of the other parties wants to have anything to do with them.
Here are the estimated number of seats for parties in the just elected Bundestag.
It looks like there will be a total of 735 seats with 368 seats needed for a majority.
Oh, what’s with the SSW with just one seat? Apparently that is a representative of the Danish-German minority from the Südschleswigsche Wählerverband (South Schleswig Voters Association). The SSW’s views are pro-environment and pro-social welfare.
Current situation. Most voters really don´t want to have Armin Laschet as chancellor. Some from his party, the CDU/CSU don´t want him as chancellor too.
This tells everything you need to know.
