An important read, I think, to start really thinking about aesthetics vs practicality in politics
Assorted excerpts, semi out of context
a handful of my own summary thoughts:
This author / journo is relatively unusual in that he is an environmentalist who is also a techno optimist, or a futurist, rather than the much more common Retvrn To TradLife sort of environmentalist.
He does have a book, Regenesis, which is pretty widely hated among a lot of "sustainable local farming" enviro-types for this specific reason:
- He thinks globally. He thinks about the billions of people who, in all likelihood, are never going to afford Gold Star Grass-fed Maximum Ethically Reared Steak, or Organic Certified Apples
- If you go down a lot of these organic hippie agriculture routes, at the end of the day... they just don't have a high enough yield to feed billions of people without chewing up much, much, much more land than we already do (and we already chew up a LOT of land)
- artificial fertiliser is really important in global food production. We can't go 100% organic, we can't stop using the synthetics, because people will freaking starve, or we will clear so much more land than we already have
- (I mean, unless you veer into the ecofascist train of thought of "we have to go back down to 1950s population numbers" which, um, are you suggesting murdering a billion people?? Ick.)
- i do have my own take on this where we need to stop worrying about the falling fertility rates and just let em fall, like, at the moment it looks like women in developed countries have an average preference of 2.3 kids each, which is just a smidge over replacement (the real achieved fertility tends to be below 2, sometimes below 1). It may turn out that if people are free to make reproductive choices, they will settle on a natural rate that keeps the population pretty much plateau'd, and we won't need so much food.
- He's very uncompromising about meat. Livestock farming is an ecological disaster, in terms of land use and efficiency converting inputs into food on a plate. I tend to agree on this - humans are not cats, we aren't obligate carnivores, and some of the healthiest and longest lived humans today and historically only had meat like, once a month tops. He's vegan, but I think that's a bit extreme (eggs and milk are pretty important, they don't kill the animals involved and they are probably a smidge more efficient than meat).
- In addition, meat comes from living animals and intensive livestock farming is kind of.... Not great, so it's kind of massive moral catastrophe as well as an environmental one
- Other moral catastrophe is that the grain used to feed cattle means less grain for humans. We could be making globally available food much, much cheaper
- so this is convincing me to eat less meat, and more legumes and tofu. I won't be going full vegetarian / vegan, but I think making the conscious decision to eat the Fancy, Extremely Expensive Ethical Meat instead of the cheap stuff while staying within my existing budget (meaning I get meat way less often but it will be the Fantastically Great Stuff whenever I do get it), that could be a moderate compromise
- I mean, maybe I'm a bit of an outlier but I'm convinced that plants are fantastic and meat is a nice to have.
- Even dialling meat back to like, 1/week rather than 1/day would probably help a lot.
So the question – one of the key questions of our time – is how we can feed a population likely to rise to 9 or 10 billion by the middle of the century before starting to decline, reliably, equitably and at a much lower environmental cost. In other words, how we might feed the world without devouring the planet [...] There are, as I found, plenty of possible ways forward. But there are no ways backward. If we were to seek to restore the agricultural systems of, say, 60 or 70 years ago, a time, remember, when many people were deeply pessimistic about human nutrition and expected global starvation as the population rose, their grim predictions would materialise. Why? Because productivity was much lower than it is today. In 2023, a world of 8.1 billion people suffers far less hunger and famine than the world of 3.2 billion did in 1963, the year of my birth. Let’s pause to consider this for a moment, because it is one of the most remarkable (and, bizarrely, least celebrated) transformations of our time.
huh.
data up until 2016; it might've gotten worse since then
huh!
It is the great indulgence of those who never miss a meal to celebrate the times and modes in which people missed plenty.