A video version of what will happen, approximately, with an average-case scenario earthquake on the San Andreas Fault outside of Los Angeles. This is why we do the #Shakeout drill and why I feature it.
Shakeout! Southern California is a tectonic time-bomb. If you look at any geologic map of the area, the terrain surrounding Los Angeles and San Diego is absolutely loaded with faults. There are hundreds of active faults in the region, including major boundaries like the Garlock Fault and the famous San Andreas, which marks the current boundary between the North American and the Pacific plates. There are regularly small earthquakes in the area (somehow though I was there for years and only felt 1), but it’s been a long time since this area has been reminded of the power the Earth has over it. The last reasonably large earthquake to strike this area was the Northridge quake in 1994, and frankly, that quake was small compared what the San Andreas can unleash. This morning, at 10:17 a.m. local time (just over an hour after this post goes up) California will hold the latest in their series of “Shakeout” drills. We have a number of readers in L.A. and the surrounding areas, so this is a good reminder and if you haven’t heard much about it, this would be a great post to like or share. The first of these drills was held in 2008. The basic concept is to practice everything as though an earthquake is happening, including official organizations, schools, and people. For most people, today should be a day to think about what will happen in when the San Andreas goes (and it absolutely will). First, at 10:17 a.m. Pacific time, get under a table for about a minute. That’s the best, safest thing you can do; find a strong table and get under it. Look around you today. What types of heavy equipment do you have stored on unsecured shelves above you? What kinds of things might fall on you? Falling items is one of the biggest threats during a moderate strength earthquake, that’s how you get a lot of injuries and it’s the biggest reason you should get underneath a solid, sturdy table. Secondly, think about your supplies. The biggest one on the list by far should be water. Imagine you’re cut off from water for 2 weeks, would you and your family be able to survive? This one, I’m not kidding about. The water pipes around L.A. are largely made of concrete and the aqueducts all cross the fault. This infrastructure is going to be shredded when the San Andreas goes and everyone should plan for it; water will stop running and some areas might not have running water for months. If you have the ability to store water somewhere on your property, it’s literally the best thing you can do to protect your family. A gallon per person per day is a good rule of thumb. It could very easily take relief days to weeks to arrive after a major event and water storage is the most important item on the list. Finally, think about what kind of building you’re occupying. This image comes from the earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand from 2011. Take a look at this building; it’s an older building made of brick and unreinforced concrete. There are hundreds, perhaps thousands of similar buildings throughout L.A., built before the onset of modern building codes. These older buildings have repeatedly contributed to deaths in earthquakes, including during the Christchurch earthquake and the large Kobe earthquake which killed 6000 people in Japan in 1997. Do you live or work in a building like this? If so, what kind of shelter do you have and how are you going to get out if it is heavily damaged? There might well not be a good answer to that question, but you’re most likely to have the answer if you’ve thought about it before. If you’re a property owner, it’s better to ask this question now than to find out later (see the link below for more details). The other thing that happens in a Shakeout drill is practice. Emergency services, utilities, police, and other agencies spin up their emergency plans and practice them. That type of practice is great and makes governments think in advance about what might go wrong; problems like loss of communication or travel abilities. They’re thinking about these problems in advance, or at least some of them. This is a good day for the people of California, and anywhere else around the world reading this post, to pause and consider the same issues. What do I do when the shaking starts, what do I do afterwards, and how will my family and I survive the next few days/weeks if things get really bad? The best estimates seem to suggest the San Andreas has about a 2% chance of producing a major earthquake close to magnitude 8 in Southern California each year. It’s due, it’s going to happen, and it’s going to happen during the lifetime of many people reading this post. -JBB Image credit: Geof Wilson http://www.flickr.com/photos/17211040@N00/5484490627/ (Creative commons license share) The official shakeout website: http://www.shakeout.org/california/ Press report: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/10/17/the-great-shakeout-earthquake-drill_n_4112960.html An important read from the L.A. Times on L.A.’s older buildings: http://www.latimes.com/local/la-me-earthquake-concrete-20131013-dto,0,1555748.htmlstory