The Earth Story

Refugees and the Environment

While the toll on humanity when faced with a refugee crisis is undeniable, the impact on the environment has the possibility of vastly changing the ecology of a region as well. In times of war and civil unrest, refugee camps that spring up are frequently densely packed and poorly managed, especially in regions that are already stressed.

Today, the Syrian refugee crisis is putting enormous strain on neighboring countries that are hosting camps for Syrians fleeing the war. Some of the biggest impacts include deforestation, erosion, and depletion or pollution of water resources. In a region that is already facing dwindling fresh water reserves, the influx of thousands of refugees both strains the water supply and causes tensions between locals and the new population.

Ethnic tensions can further damage local ecosystems, as seen in Zaire following the Rwandan Civil War and genocide. Military groups of both Hutus and Tutsis used the refugee camps in Zaire to attack one another, ultimately leading to two more civil wars over the next five years and the formation of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Together the wars were deadlier than any conflict since the end of World War I, and had a massive impact on the region's ecology. Vast swaths of Africa’s forests were threatened by attempts to deny cover to the fighting militias. This policy is reminiscent of the United States’ effort to defoliate much of southern Vietnam through chemical agents such as the infamous Agent Orange.

However, unlike Vietnam, the region’s plant life returned fairly quickly. Large parts of the Virunga Volcanoes region was cleared, but bamboo grows quickly, and the region has recovered. The forests that were heavily forested by refugee camps happened to be in an area often affected by volcanic flows, and the species that grow there are able to recover rapidly.

But Africa’s wildlife did not fare so well. The Goma-Rutshuru road was heavily deforested and the setting for a number of conflicts. It also cuts across a major migration route for elephants and other large mammals. War zones also bring arms dealers, and the easy availability of automatic weapons led to a sharp increase in poaching. Almost the entire population of hippopotamus were killed along two major rivers. The sudden population drop has had the subsequent effect of changing local vegetation and damaging the fishing industry of the region. ~RA

Image: http://bit.ly/2rVuFo5

Sources: http://bit.ly/2hw4cb0 http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5520

Of a drought, a civil war, and millions of fleeing refugees...with more to come in the future

One of the expected effects of global warming is an increase in drought in varying parts of the globe, and one example is the series which has been worsening in the Eastern Mediterranean region since 1998. This group of events have strained the resilience of the societies living there, and Syria was pushed beyond the breaking point by the record breaking event it sustained between 2005 and 2010, though the knock on effects of this conflict has also put all its neighbours and the European Union under major stress as well. While climate change is not the only factor in the ongoing civil war, political, religious and other strains being at the fore of the media debate, it is doubtful whether events would have taken such a tragic turn but for this drought, which recent tree ring research (broadly put wide ring good growth year, narrow ring bad growth year) shows to be the worst in 900 years.

When the drought started, Syrian society, however politically constrained, had a certain amount if inbuilt resilience through state, local, tribal and family networks to weather the first years. The country's aquifers were depleted however, due to misguided agricultural policies since the 1970's, and most farmers were dependent on rain for irrigation. Farms had yet to recover from the 1998-2000 drought when the 5 year one hit, creating a disaster.

Take away people's ability to earn a livelihood off the land, and sooner or later, the farmers have to move to seek employment elsewhere (as happened in the dust bowl in the US Midwest in the 1930's forcing many farmers to move west to California and Oregon). If this work isn't available in sufficient quantities for the displaced people (now living in concrete facility less slums at the edge of large cities like Damascus and Aleppo, Syria's urban population grew by 50% between 2002 and 2010) to feed their families, and food costs increase (as they did in the late naughties), you have a recipe for revolution, and evidence of a failing state that is unable to meet its people's needs. Since then we have had years of civil war whose complexity has risen as more and more actors and proxies enter the scene. Over 4.2 million have fled the country (mostly to Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan, also affected by the drought, though a mere million has seemingly managed to stall the entire European dream), and 7.6 million more remain internally displaced within Syria in an ever shifting mosaic that mirrors the ebbs and flows of battle.

The tree ring data was compiled from across the region, and revealed 900 years of information on wet and dry periods, and show that the current drought is well beyond the norms of natural climate variation during this period, implying that it is a clear signal of biting climate change. Research last year (linked below) showed that such events are three times more likely in a world with higher greenhouse gas levels.

Climate modelling suggests that this is only the start, and that the whole region, already deficient in water resources for its growing population will get drier as the century progresses as rainfall patterns shift in a warming world. The region is already under severe water stress, with conflicts over upstream diversion by Turkey of the waters of the Tigris and Euphrates simmering in the background and over the waters of the Jordan.

Worse droughts in the future, and the possible implosion of other countries under the strain, with all the attendant consequences are now a growing preoccupation of the world's military security apparati (the Pentagon calls global warming a threat multiplier that poses “immediate risks) and if they're worried, we should be too. As David Titley, director of Penn State's Center for Solutions to Weather and Climate Risk and retired Navy Rear Admiral put it: “This paper points to the importance of resilience, and how spectacularly a society can break and fracture when climate-forced events exceed the capacity to adapt.”

Loz

Image credit: Graphic: NASA/Grace, Drought: Reuters, Civil war: Abd Doumani/AFP, Refugees fleeing: EPA

http://go.nasa.gov/23BIZQ2 http://bit.ly/217TeVM http://bit.ly/1pnRX0W http://bit.ly/1R3HvVz

original papers, paywall access: http://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241 http://bit.ly/1WUKEIJ http://bit.ly/22FP4Hb

Damage in Cabo San Lucas The tourist-heavy city of Cabo San Lucas on Mexico’s Baja California peninsula took a direct hit from Hurricane Odile early last week. This photo captures some of the remnants in several ways. The area took heavy damage to infrastructure and property. Accounts from the area suggest damage to virtually every building, from windows blown out to buildings completely leveled. At the time the storm hit there were about 30,000 tourists in the area. So far about 15,000 have been evacuated, but this line testifies to the slow process of getting people to airports and back to where they belong. A growing humanitarian disaster is building in the area as available supplies of clean water are running out.  I’m not going to suggest any specific charities, as I don’t want to suggest a charity without knowing its quality, but if you’re in a position to contribute and want to do a fair amount of good with that contribution, this is a place that could really use relief funds right now. -JBB Image credit: NBC News http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/americans-trapped-cabo-after-odile-describe-desperation-danger-n207476 Read more: http://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/Cabo-Emergency-Crews-in-Desperate-Need-of-Help-Firefighter-275551091.html