Source of skyrocketing atmospheric methane
Molecules of methane in the atmosphere behave as a potent greenhouse gas – they absorb light at wavelengths where the atmosphere would otherwise be transparent, converting that light into heat and forcing the atmosphere to warm up in order to remove energy from the surface. Atmospheric methane concentrations have been increasing for decades due to changes caused by humans, including agriculture, changes in land use, and use of methane as the main ingredient in natural gas.
In samples of atmosphere from ice cores, methane abundances in the atmosphere are typically between 500 and 750 ppb, varying with the large-scale climate shifts on the planet. Since the year 1800 though, methane concentrations have spiked to over 1800 ppb – multiplying by a factor of 3. Despite this rapid runup, in the first decade of this century it appeared as though humanity was making progress controlling this gas. Atmospheric methane first reached 1800 ppb during the year 1998, but from 1998-2007 the total methane measured in the atmosphere was nearly constant.
However, starting in 2008, this pattern changed again, and methane concentrations began increasing rapidly again, reaching over 1850 ppb this year. This methane spike has correlated with increased drilling for natural gas particularly in the United States; so expecting gas exploration to be the sole cause has been a tempting hypothesis. However, when methane is leaked to the atmosphere there are a number of microbes that rapidly use it for energy, so the exact source of the big methane boost in the atmosphere still needed identification. Recent research suggests that in fact gas exploration itself has not been the cause of the recent surge in methane, but that in fact the cause may be even more worrisome.
Carbon has 2 stable isotopes – one with six neutrons and one with seven neutrons. Different reservoirs for carbon, including organic life today, carbonate rocks, and fossil fuels each have different ratios of these 2 isotopes, meaning that with detailed enough measurements scientists have some ability to use them as a fingerprint.
A team of scientists from countries around the world worked on this problem using samples taken as part of a global sampling effort run by NOAA, the United States National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. Samples of the atmosphere were taken, methane abundances were measured, isotope ratios were measured, and the exact location of each sampling site was processed to best characterize the source of the methane.
Once the researchers had enough data, they realized that natural gas leaks could not be the cause of the increasing methane after 2007. Natural gas has more carbon-13 than modern organic matter and the methane escaping to the atmosphere was missing this heavy carbon. The lower carbon 13 abundance fingerprinted modern life as the source of this methane. Something was changing in the biosphere, but what? The next step for the scientists was to test what portion of the Earth was generating this methane pulse. If the methane was coming from agriculture – say for example being released by farming and animals – then the methane spike should correlate in latitude with the heaviest farming activities. This hypothesis was also found to be untrue, as were other ideas they tested such as reduced use of methane by surface organisms. After eliminating other possible hypotheses, the scientists concluded that the methane entering the atmosphere today is coming from the tropics.
This image is a mangrove swamp. There are huge areas of submerged wetlands like these all around the tropics and they are extremely sensitive to changes in water temperature, salinity, and water level. The soils in these swamps have very little oxygen, so if the conditions change and those soils are disturbed, large amounts of methane can be released rapidly.
The increased methane in the atmosphere is coming from latitudes where these swamps are abundant, it matches them in isotope composition, and it turns out there is also some correlation with large scale weather events in the tropics such as the El Niño cycle. Swamps in the tropics have, over the past 9 years, started releasing much more methane than they were in previous years.
This finding is particularly concerning because the amounts of carbon locked in these swamps worldwide is enormous – enough to drive major ongoing warming if it is released. Large releases of methane from these systems imply that the weather conditions at these sites are changing more rapidly than the swamps can keep up. While this measurement doesn’t tell the state of any specific swamp, it suggests that worldwide the stresses on this important ecosystem are increasing. Release of carbon from these systems is a major feedback – as the earth warms and they become less stable, even more carbon can be released, making the atmospheric warming even more intense and destabilizing even larger areas..
While the result of this work suggests that natural gas production is not the direct cause of these methane increases, a fingerprint suggesting that gas production was driving them would almost have been more comforting. Instead, these results suggest that major systems on Earth are being put under growing stress even compared to just a few years ago, a particularly troubling sign of rapid environmental change.
Image credit: NOAA http://bit.ly/2h4Wjuu
Reference/Original paper: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GB005406/full http://bit.ly/2hBm6sW