Of a drought, a civil war, and millions of fleeing refugees...with more to come in the future
One of the expected effects of global warming is an increase in drought in varying parts of the globe, and one example is the series which has been worsening in the Eastern Mediterranean region since 1998. This group of events have strained the resilience of the societies living there, and Syria was pushed beyond the breaking point by the record breaking event it sustained between 2005 and 2010, though the knock on effects of this conflict has also put all its neighbours and the European Union under major stress as well. While climate change is not the only factor in the ongoing civil war, political, religious and other strains being at the fore of the media debate, it is doubtful whether events would have taken such a tragic turn but for this drought, which recent tree ring research (broadly put wide ring good growth year, narrow ring bad growth year) shows to be the worst in 900 years.
When the drought started, Syrian society, however politically constrained, had a certain amount if inbuilt resilience through state, local, tribal and family networks to weather the first years. The country's aquifers were depleted however, due to misguided agricultural policies since the 1970's, and most farmers were dependent on rain for irrigation. Farms had yet to recover from the 1998-2000 drought when the 5 year one hit, creating a disaster.
Take away people's ability to earn a livelihood off the land, and sooner or later, the farmers have to move to seek employment elsewhere (as happened in the dust bowl in the US Midwest in the 1930's forcing many farmers to move west to California and Oregon). If this work isn't available in sufficient quantities for the displaced people (now living in concrete facility less slums at the edge of large cities like Damascus and Aleppo, Syria's urban population grew by 50% between 2002 and 2010) to feed their families, and food costs increase (as they did in the late naughties), you have a recipe for revolution, and evidence of a failing state that is unable to meet its people's needs. Since then we have had years of civil war whose complexity has risen as more and more actors and proxies enter the scene. Over 4.2 million have fled the country (mostly to Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan, also affected by the drought, though a mere million has seemingly managed to stall the entire European dream), and 7.6 million more remain internally displaced within Syria in an ever shifting mosaic that mirrors the ebbs and flows of battle.
The tree ring data was compiled from across the region, and revealed 900 years of information on wet and dry periods, and show that the current drought is well beyond the norms of natural climate variation during this period, implying that it is a clear signal of biting climate change. Research last year (linked below) showed that such events are three times more likely in a world with higher greenhouse gas levels.
Climate modelling suggests that this is only the start, and that the whole region, already deficient in water resources for its growing population will get drier as the century progresses as rainfall patterns shift in a warming world. The region is already under severe water stress, with conflicts over upstream diversion by Turkey of the waters of the Tigris and Euphrates simmering in the background and over the waters of the Jordan.
Worse droughts in the future, and the possible implosion of other countries under the strain, with all the attendant consequences are now a growing preoccupation of the world's military security apparati (the Pentagon calls global warming a threat multiplier that poses “immediate risks) and if they're worried, we should be too. As David Titley, director of Penn State's Center for Solutions to Weather and Climate Risk and retired Navy Rear Admiral put it: “This paper points to the importance of resilience, and how spectacularly a society can break and fracture when climate-forced events exceed the capacity to adapt.”
Image credit: Graphic: NASA/Grace, Drought: Reuters, Civil war: Abd Doumani/AFP, Refugees fleeing: EPA
http://go.nasa.gov/23BIZQ2 http://bit.ly/217TeVM http://bit.ly/1pnRX0W http://bit.ly/1R3HvVz
original papers, paywall access: http://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241 http://bit.ly/1WUKEIJ http://bit.ly/22FP4Hb