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#recession is coming – @dragoni on Tumblr
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DragonI

@dragoni

"Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie", Miyamoto Musashi
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reblogged
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stoweboyd

Why are businesses and consumers acting so differently?

Nicholas Bloom, an economics professor at Stanford University, disagrees [with earlier comments by Richard Curtin, director of consumer surveys at the University of Michigan]. A co-director of the research panel responsible for the Survey of Business Uncertainty for the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Mr. Bloom sees business in the lead.
“Business is more forward-looking,” he said. “We’re at the end of a very long expansion, and there are now a number of politically driven headwinds: Trump’s trade fight with China, Brexit and Europe’s slowdown. It’s the last song of the night.”
He described consumers as more backward looking. The average person tends to notice the very low unemployment rate and reports of stock market rallies, he said, which create a sense of good times.

I love the line,

It’s the last song of the night.
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dragoni

Companies act based on facts and stats. Consumers act based on impulse and emotions. Ignorance is Bliss.

American consumers are energetically engaged in a spendathon.

Consumers, heed Dennis’ warning

Consumer spending is always a trailing indicator of overall economic activity. Look at headlines prior to previous recessions: people spend right up to the time they don’t.  They increasingly use debt to fund the spending. And then, whammo.  If consumer spending is the only thing propping this economy up, well, buckle your safety belt.  It’s going to be a bumpy ride.
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Trump promised to shrink the U.S. trade deficit — instead it exploded to a record levels. 

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Trump’s Economic Adviser and member of the US-China Trade Team Larry Kudlow has the memory of a gnat. #DumbAF

Headlines from just 2 weeks ago on Aug 5, 2019

  1. China suspends purchases of US farm products in retaliation for ‘serious violation’ of trade deal between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, South China Morning Post
  2. China Retaliates To Trump's New Tariffs, Suspends Purchases Of Agricultural Products, IBT
  3. China to stop buying all U.S. ag products in retaliation of new tariffs, Real Agriculture
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If Hillary had said “9 of last 10 Recessions occurred under Republican Presidents since 1953”, she would have been 100% correct.

  1. July 1953 to May 1954–Eisenhower
  2. August 1957 to April 1958–Eisenhower
  3. April 1960 to February 1961–Eisenhower
  4. December 1969 to November 1970–Nixon
  5. November 1973 to March 1975–Nixon/Ford
  6. January 1980 to July 1980–Carter (Democrat) *** OPEC Oil Crisis
  7. July 1981-November 1982–Reagan
  8. July 1990-March 1991—HW Bush
  9. March 2001-November 2001–W Bush
  10. December 2007-June 2009–W Bush/Obama–last five months under Democrat

Republicans, why do Recessions happen when Republican presidents are in power?

#DUMBDONALD Trump Recession is Coming #VoteHimOut  #VoteThemOut

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reblogged

Gee, Benedict Trump’s business acumen is ready benefitting manufacturing.

Traitor Trump

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dragoni

The Great #TrumpRecession is coming it's 100% the fault of Trump and Republicans  #TrumpTariffs there’s no way he can blame Obama.

#TrumpLayoffs  The Unemployment Office might be hiring now that Epstein sex trafficker enabler Alex Acosta quit, #TrumpJobs

A measure of U.S. manufacturing activity unexpectedly fell in May to the lowest level since October 2016
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Before moving on, let’s straighten out the truth about globalization.

“The freer the flow of world trade, the stronger the tides for human progress and peace among nations.”Ronald Reagan

The stories from business owners and exec’s who were Trump Voters and are Trump Supporters. They all agree they’re getting hurt by Trump’s Tariffs just as farmers are. #IdiotInChief

The head shaker comes from Tom Sligh, who loves Trump’s tariffs AND doesn’t mind losing money and new business#SoMuchLosing How many more are like Tom Sligh?

Across the industrial United States, including in the crucial political battleground state of Michigan, such complaints are intensifying as the trade war disrupts factory operations that depend on imported parts.

Made in America is a myth. It’s Assembled in America!

In vowing to take a tough line with China, Mr. Trump secured 62 percent of the votes in surrounding Ottawa County. Though the tariffs he has imposed have lifted prices for parts at many factories, the president draws praise here for delivering on a central promise.
The tariffs have been sold to Americans as a means of forcing multinational companies to make their products in the United States, abandoning China, Mexico and other low-cost centers of industry. But the tariffs are threatening jobs that are already here.

Pat LeBlanc and Cory Steeby of  EBW Electronics

“It’s killing us,” said the chairman of the company [EBW], Pat LeBlanc, 63, a Republican who voted for Mr. Trump. He now expects the president’s tariffs will chop his 2019 profits in half. “I just feel so betrayed. If we fail because the company is being harmed by the government, that just makes me sick.”
“It’s a tax that comes right off the bottom line,” said EBW’s president, Cory Steeby. “It totally incentivizes you to move out of the United States and build either in Canada or Mexico. These are active conversations right now.”
“At 25 percent, we are not making money,” Mr. Steeby said. “There’s a threat that you cease to exist, or there’s a threat that jobs move to Mexico.” 

Tom Sligh, president of Billco Products

China’s reply, enjoy bankruptcy and unemployment. Trump specialties!

“Even though it’s hurting me, I hope we have the guts to stick it out,” said Tom Sligh, president of Billco Products, which makes cabinets, dressers and other furniture for hotels at three factories in Holland.
The tariffs have increased his costs by 10 percent, he said, but he has not been able to pass them on. He recently lost a bid to outfit a hotel in Grand Rapids when a Chinese competitor offered less than half his price.
“It sends a message to our friends in China that we are not fooling around,” Mr. Sligh said.

Larry Kooiker,  president of Agritek

Larry Kooiker voted for Mr. Trump, and shares the sense that China’s trading actions require an aggressive response. But Mr. Kooiker, president of Agritek, a factory that makes a range of metal parts, says the tariffs on components have been poorly conceived.
“It’s just been a disaster,” he said, as clattering machinery pounded sheets of steel into brackets that hold shelves.
“Trump is killing us,” Mr. Kooiker said. “His bang for the buck is horrible.”

And then there’s this!

“weakening factory orders in the United States, China and Europe have deepened the sense that global growth is slowing.”

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