Who knows now the counsels of Morgoth? Who can measure the reach of his thought, who had been Melkor, mighty among the Ainur of the Great Song, and sat now, a dark lord upon a dark throne in the North, weighing in his malice all the tidings that came to him, and perceiving more of the deeds and purposes of his enemies than even the wisest of them feared, save only Melian the Queen? To her often the thought of Morgoth reached out, and there was foiled.
hm i think i tend to see lots of characterization of melkor as a destroyer first and foremost who's good for nothing other than raw power and breaking things left and right, but that's really a severe disservice to him imo. in the silm here it is stated point-blank that he can be good at reading his enemies. he's good at predicting the ways that they think, and he's good at using that to his advantage. and it's not just a case of show-don't-tell either, because he has pulled off manipulation and deception spectacularly before. before the darkening, he's able to fool most of the valar into trusting the sincerity of his repentance, enough so that he's clearly given, if not free roam, something pretty close to it, in valinor. he successfully makes feanor distrust the valar and does it so well that even after feanor realizes how malicious he really is, he's still believing and repeating the lies melkor told him in the past. and it's not just feanor either -- melkor spreads his propaganda against the valar to other elves, and he does it with enough tact and finesse that nobody traces it back to him until it's much too late. i do think that his subtlety and people skills degenerated quite a bit over time throughout the first age, but he still knows very well how to read people. on top of the excerpt from above, wherein he is stated to be thoroughly aware of his enemies' actions and motivations, this passage comes to mind:
But Morgoth thought that his triumph was fulfilled, recking little of the sons of Fëanor, and of their oath, which had harmed him never and turned always to his mightiest aid; and in his black thought he laughed, regretting not the one Silmaril that he had lost, for by it as he deemed the last shred of the people of the Eldar should vanish from Middle-earth and trouble it no more. If he knew of the dwelling by the waters of Sirion, he gave no sign, biding his time, and waiting upon the working of oath and lie.
he knows the sons of feanor will attack sirion. he knows they will once again cave to their oath and commit more violence against other elves, despite having come to beleriand as his enemies. this is right after the fall of gondolin -- almost thirty years before the third kinslaying occurs -- and he's already aware of what the sons of feanor will choose to do when even they themselves likely aren't sure. it's an impressive display of astuteness and insight and i don't think it gets discussed in the specific context of what it means for melkor's character. yes, he is deeply arrogant, self-centered, and spiteful, and that blindsides him a lot of the time. (look no further than the lay of leithian, where he massively underestimates luthien.) but he can also be extremely shrewd when he wants to be.
also! i like the fact that he is explicitly noted to have laughed at the notion of the feanorians attacking other elves. they've already caused the fall of doriath, and now he's correctly predicted that they'll sack sirion in the future. melkor has a sense of humor, people! a very dark sense of humor that probably always comes at others' expense, but it is a sense of humor. and it's a good one at that, because the feanorians' actions are deeply ironic. i can't blame him for giggling tbh, i would too.
another thing i find significant is that melkor does not regret losing the silmaril to luthien because he knows it will ultimately lead to another kinslaying. he of course miscalculates in thinking that that will spell the irreversible end for the eldar in beleriand, and he couldn't have known that earendil would actually try to sail to aman to plead for the valar's help, nor could he have known that elwing would bring the silmaril to vingilot and enable the success of earendil's voyage. but in my experience at least, melkor is perceived and portrayed as somewhat silmaril-obsessed, and he's really... not? he's capable of being outright fine about losing one since its loss contributes to his overall aims. imo, he's actually quite rational about the whole thing. he cares more about the usefulness of the situation -- and the black humor in it -- than he cares about the silmaril. and compared to what i've seen him get credit for, he has several instances across the silm where he's pretty smart.
p.s. the last sentence on that first passage is funny as hell to me. "often the thought of morgoth reached out" to melian, "and there was foiled." melkor stretching telepathically out across beleriand like "psst hey melian--" only to be stonewalled every time with
All of this, so much.
I feel like people really underestimate how dangerous Melkor is in the manipulation department, to use that as an umbrella term. He has a share in all of the gifts of the Ainur and in my opinion this is where his share in Nienna's compassion went: Into reading people.
When he puts his mind to it he's so good at not just dragging people down but permanently ruining them as well. Humanity never fully recovered from getting doomed by his lies, to name one particularly drastic example.
And this is why I don't get how it's apparently so unfathomable for some people that no, the Valar are not bad and/or stupid, they got tricked by an incredibly skilled and dangerous manipulator who knew their minds well and yes, while Fëanor was onto him he still fell for his lies because Melkor how to get under his skin. He even learned language just to mess with people who block ósanwë from him.
