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#2024 us presidential election – @bearfoottruck on Tumblr
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The home of chicken & waffles & whatever.

@bearfoottruck / bearfoottruck.tumblr.com

Welcome to my tumblr page! Here, you will find random stuff, some of which may surprise you!
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On Wikipedia, I found out about an old political strategy used by the Irish Republican Army called the "Armalite and ballot box strategy", and directly from that article, I discovered an article about an American concept called the "Four Boxes of Liberty". In short, it states that there are four boxes to be used in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury and cartridge, in that order. Think about that.

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elumish

I have some much less nice posts currently saved in my drafts that I am clinging on to my self control enough not to post, but I will say this:

This is why you show up and you vote. This is why you show up even when you don't agree with every policy, when you think both candidates are too far to the right, when you think your vote doesn't matter.

We will be spending the next 4+ years living with the consequences of people's decision not to vote or to vote for a third party or to vote for the racist authoritarian rapist felon over an extremely qualified Black/S. Asian woman.

Want a better candidate? Start working on finding and supporting them tomorrow. But in two years, and in four, and in every election in between and after, show up, fulfill your civic responsibility as an American citizen, and vote.

I would vote, but the problem is 1. I live in a state where pretty much everybody and their mother votes for the Democrats anyways, and 2. I don't feel there's much of a point in voting in presidential elections anymore if they're just gonna be decided by a bunch of dickheads in a handful of swing states. Oh, and don't get me started on the assholes in my town who voted for all Rethuglicans for the town council.

I promise that this is not an attack on you, but I want to say a couple of things:

  1. The way that states become swing states is that reliably blue voters in a blue state stop voting blue, or reliably red voters in a red state stop voting red. A Democrat won Pennsylvania in every election from 1992-2012, and the smallest winning margin during that time was 2.5% in 2004. Pennsylvania now is a swing state at best, leaning red at worst. On the other hand, Virginia and Ohio both used to be swing states only a few elections ago, and now one is pretty reliably blue and the other is pretty reliably red. All it takes it one or two elections of left-of-center people not bothering to vote Dem because they think their state is going to be safe no matter what, and you've got yourself a swing state. I would have argued before this week that NJ was a blue-no-matter-what state, but it swung somewhere in the realm of 5-6 points rightward this election. Still blue, but much less so.
  2. If you're somewhere that everyone votes Democrat but your town voted Republicans into power locally, showing up to vote seems like a pretty good way that help keep your local area blue, too.

Voting is one of the most low-cost ways that you can express yourself politically. My entire voting experience was somewhere around an hour, and I walk to my polling station. If yours is too far away or election day isn't convenient for you, vote early! Vote by mail! Do whatever is most convenient for you.

But an hour or two of your time (or even four or five) seems like a pretty low cost to have a say in your political representation at the local, state, and federal level.

I get what you're trying to say, but I've been voting since 2008, me having been eligible since 2007, and nothing ever changes. How can I possibly make real change when I'm just one fly in a larger tub of ointment, short of killing Trump supporters?

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In the latest election news, I saw a post on r/conservativeterrorism claiming that Elon Musk was paying people to register to vote, so I investigated for myself, and according to what I'm reading, he's offering people $47 to sign a petition in support of the First and Second Amendments. As much as I support the Constitution, this is clearly illegal, so please report it to the FBI. Here's the post in question:

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Hey everyone, I just wanted to give another election reminder: Republicans are literally dying out, and Allan Lichtman has predicted Harris as the winner in the 2024 election, but none of this is worth a damn unless you go out and VOTE. I know there are those of us for whom Harris is not "left" or "progressive" or "whatever" enough, but let me ask you this: do you REALLY want to risk a second Trump presidency because of your political prejudices?

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elumish

My September 2024 election reminder: ideological purity will not win you anything.

I see people on the left saying that they can't possibly vote for Harris because she's too pro-Israel, because she's too far to the right on immigration, because she's too far to the right on criminal justice, because she was a cop (she wasn't), because you think this policy or that policy is too conservative.

Not voting for her only increases the chances that we get a president who is even further to the right.

Those are our two choices. Like it or not, support the American political system or not, we have two choices, and one of them is further to the right on every single policy that you have opinions about.

So if you think Harris is too far to the right on Israel/Gaza, remember: Trump is so much further to the right. You don't like that the Biden administration is providing military aid to Israel (a thing that Harris cannot actually stop even if she wanted to, given that she's not president)? Trump has already proven, on a policy level, to be more pro-Israel. Remember when he moved the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, functionally acknowledging Israeli sovereignty over Jerusalem? He is extremely pro-Israel and has materially proven it. Harris, on the other hand, has been calling for a cease fire since March and has recognized out loud the need for Palestinian sovereignty.

If you're wondering why she hasn't changed U.S. policy on Israel, I would like to remind you once again: she is not currently the President of the United States.

Holding on to your precious ideological purity and not voting for someone whose policies you find distasteful will not result in policies you like. It only increases the risk of policies that are so much further away from what you want.

Voting is public transportation. Voting is harm reduction. Voting is moving us a little bit closer towards the policies we want or, at the very least, keeping us from moving further and further away.

If you do want to express your disagreement about Harris's policy positions or the policy positions of any other politician who can or may represent you, a much more effective method than not voting is contacting their office or campaign.

Don't want your politicians supporting military aid to Israel? Tell their office. They do record and track those numbers.

Call them! Fill out an online form! Send a letter!

Having an issue in your state or district? Talk to constituent services!

There are existing mechanisms to express disagreement or displeasure directly to a politician's office that don't involve forfeiting your say in election results.

Amen!

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elumish

Hello friends!

I know it's only August, but I thought I'd start early:

If you have the legal right to vote in the United States, there is no benefit to you in not voting. All that not voting does to you is remove your most powerful legal ability to impact the identity of those who represent you in the government.

By the time you reach the election, by the time ballots are printed and you are filling in a bubble or pressing a button or flipping a lever, your only meaningful choice for who to vote for are the people who are listed on the ballot.

Because we live in a two-party system, in the vast majority of jurisdictions*, you are choosing between members of two parties. If you vote for someone who is not a member of one of those parties, you are throwing away your ability to meaningfully impact who wins that election. It sucks. it's shitty. It's unfortunate. But if you want a third party candidate to have a chance in a major race, it starts years before the election, not when you are standing in front of your ballot in November.

And if you think, they're both the same as each other--they're not. For literally any policy that you care about, there will be differences. Pick the policies you care most about, find the one who sits closer to you and vote for them. That is the only way that laws will move in the direction you want, by electing people who vote for policies that are closer to what you want.

I studied game theory in college, and from my standpoint it was one of the most useful and educational classes I took during my entire academic career, because of this key idea: If you want 10, and your options are 0 or 5, 5 is a better option for you. Something gives you more than nothing, even if you want a lot.

You will not get a politician who agrees with everything you want, unless you run for office yourself. Pick what you care the most about, and vote based on that. See voting as harm reduction. See voting as public transportation. See voting as whatever gets you out to vote.

But vote.

*There are a few independents in office. An independent or third party candidate will not win the Presidency in 2024.

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So...I don't know if anyone here lives in a state where they have open primaries, but here's an idea I'm throwing out there, which somebody may already have put out: why not go to the Republican primaries en masse and vote for somebody other than Trump? If we can get enough people to vote for a specific non-Trump candidate, we might just be able to prevent him from becoming the Republican nominee. I don't have any data yet on which states are going to have open primaries for the Republican Party in 2024, but I'll update you.

In the meantime, if I were to pick somebody other than Trump for the nomination, I'd pick Nikki Haley. Not only is she a woman of color, but some of her opinions don't seem all that extreme.

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